Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
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Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#2Many American tech leaders helped usher in a Trump presidency in the belief that he could be their strongman protecting them from meddling foreign governments: No more EU levying fines or China making demands, they thought, or else Donald would target them with punitive tariffs! They had the mob boss on their side and this was their time to trample the world.
Zuckerberg explicitly stated this in his Rogan interview.
Pretty funny how that turned out. American tech is going to be on a carousel of ass kickings. The fines and punitive measures are going to be coming at a torrential clip, and of course the US economy is going to be in for an extremely rough few years, and tech is the first thing that sees budget cuts. Quite aside from the entire industry being gut punched by the stupidest tariff regime in human history.
Art of the Deal
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#3Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#4No Hyper-economy, like China or the EU is going to stand about and take what seems like economic intimidation from the US. All the unaffiliated nations are going to be collateral damage in this clash of the economic titans.
The best thing everyone can do is maintain low tariffs and try and strike free trade deals with each other. But the consequeces of Trumps Trade war are going to be disasterous for smaller developing nations and their economies. We'll see more poverty, more political instability, civil wars, coups and other unpleaseant activities.
The USA will probably get higher inflation while the rest of the world sees lower inflation if not deflation.
We'll have to find a way of getting through this window of misfortune to the other side, where I suspect we'll all be poorer and less free.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#5Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better.
Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#6Many American tech leaders helped usher in a Trump presidency in the belief that he could be their strongman protecting them from meddling foreign governments: No more EU levying fines or China making demands, they thought, or else Donald would target them with punitive tariffs! They had the mob boss on their side and this was their time to trample the world. Zuckerberg explicitly stated this in his Rogan interview.…
> Art of the Deal
Reminder that Trump had no part in writing the book:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_the_Deal
More seriously, this 2018 article from Indiana University negotiations professor David Honig has (re-)popped in recent months:
> Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you’re fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump’s world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.
> The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don’t have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.
[…]
> One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you’re going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don’t have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won’t agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you’re going to have to find another cabinet maker.
> There isn’t another Canada.
[…]
> Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that’s just not how politics works, not over the long run.
* https://medium.com/@davidhonig_67081/distributive-bargaining...
* https://blogs.iu.edu/keep/distributive-negotiation-vs-integr...
* https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/negotiation-skills-daily/n...
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#7Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to
It will suck on both sides, but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react.
Congress stepping in to exclude Canada and Mexico and the NAFTA exemption cushions the blow significantly.
Most of Latin America being placed at the lower end of the announcement means manufacturers who used to be competitive until China Shock set around 2014-16 can be cost competitive again.
Other large markets like India, UK, and Vietnam are negotiating as well and India expects as Bilateral Trade Agreement to be closed by Aug-Oct.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#8Not sure why anyone would trust someone who has bankrupted 6 companies personally and directly to make any choices on the economy.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#9Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to
Both sides just survived covid in their own ways. There was suffering though, just like there will be again.
Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs
#10How is it retaliation to destroy your own economy by making the same bad life choices? Isn't actual retaliation to just ignore the entire thing and thank the US for the extra percentage points in advantage you got for free?