AGI is far from inevitable
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Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#2AGI is about as far away as it was two decades ago. Language models are merely a dent, and probably will be the precursor to a natural language interface to the thing.
Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#3The current LLMs are just good at parroting, and even that is sometimes unbelievably bad.
We still have barely scratched the surface of how the brain truly works.
I will start worrying about AGI when that is completely figured out.
Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#4AGI is about as far away as it was two decades ago. Language models are merely a dent, and probably will be the precursor to a natural language interface to the thing.
It’s useful to consider the rise of computer graphics and cgi. When you first see CGI, you might think that the software is useful for general simulations of physical systems. The reality is that it only provides a thin facsimile.
Real simulation software has always been separate from computer graphics.
Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#5So what? Current LLM has been really useful and can be still improved to be used in million robots that need to be good enough to support many specialized but repetitive tasks - this would have tremendous impact on economy itself.
Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#6Basically the linked article argues like this:
> That’s because cognition, or the ability to observe, learn and gain new insight, is incredibly hard to replicate through AI on the scale that it occurs in the human brain.
(no other more substantial arguments were given)
I'm also very skeptical on seeing AGI soon, but LLMs do solve problems that people thought were extremely difficult to solve ten years ago.
Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#7Basically the linked article argues like this: > That’s because cognition, or the ability to observe, learn and gain new insight, is incredibly hard to replicate through AI on the scale that it occurs in the human brain. (no other more substantial arguments were given) I'm also very skeptical on seeing AGI soon, but LLMs do solve problems that people thought were extremely difficult to solve ten years ago.
It's possible we see some ways in which AI becomes increasingly AGI like in some ways but not in others. For example, AI that can create novel scientific discoveries but can't make a song as good as your favorite musician who creates a strong emotional effect with their music.
Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#8> There will never be enough computing power to create AGI using machine learning that can do the same [as the human brain], because we’d run out of natural resources long before we'd even get close
I don’t understand how people can so confidently make claims like this. We might underestimate how difficult AGI is, but come on?!
Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#9> There will never be enough computing power to create AGI using machine learning that can do the same [as the human brain], because we’d run out of natural resources long before we'd even get close I don’t understand how people can so confidently make claims like this. We might underestimate how difficult AGI is, but come on?!
I don't think the people saying that AGI is happening in the near future know what would be necessary to achieve it. Neither do the AGI skeptics, we simply don't understand this area well enough.
Evolution created intelligence and consciousness. This means that it is clearly possible for us to do the same. Doesn't mean that simply scaling LLMs could ever achieve it.
Re: AGI is far from inevitable
#10This is a press release for a paper (a common thing university departments do) and we'd be better off with the paper itself as the story link:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42113-024-00217-5