Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
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Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
1–10 of 33 posts
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#2+1: The Monty Hall Problem Never Gets Old :)
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#3Is not each birth an independent random event, and thus the likelihood that they would have a boy, given that they already have a girl, simply 50%?
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#467%. The percentage of having one boy and one girl is 50%, "one of them is a girl" eliminate the condition of having two boy.
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#5Is not each birth an independent random event, and thus the likelihood that they would have a boy, given that they already have a girl, simply 50%?
That's the same reasoning I have. P(B|A) = P(B) for independent variables.
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#6Is not each birth an independent random event, and thus the likelihood that they would have a boy, given that they already have a girl, simply 50%?
The correct answer is 2/3 though. Check the Monty Hall problem for the explanation (this kind of problem is well known for having confused famous mathematicians like Erdös himself).
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#7Is not each birth an independent random event, and thus the likelihood that they would have a boy, given that they already have a girl, simply 50%?
That's the same reasoning I have. P(B|A) = P(B) for independent variables.
On the other hand, if a couple told you they had five kids, at least four are boys, you would say to yourself, "it's not very likely that any couple would have five boys", and you would be correct...
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#8Take a random parent with two children. You ask them if at least one is a boy and they say yes. The probability that the other is a girl is 66.6%
Take another random parent with two children. You ask them if the oldest child is a boy and they say yes. Now the probability that the other is a girl is 50%.
This confuses people. (The point is the second scenario gives you more information since it's a subset of the first.)
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's the same reasoning I have. P(B|A) = P(B) for independent variables.
On the other hand, if a couple told you they had five kids, at least four are boys, you would say to yourself, "it's not very likely that any couple would have five boys", and you would be correct...
Yes, BBBBB is rare. But BBBBG is just as rare (at least statistically. In practical terms, I suspect that having four boys in a row would be too exhausting and irritating, so they'd have given up by then).
Re: Coding Horror: The Problem of the Unfinished Game
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
On the other hand, if a couple told you they had five kids, at least four are boys, you would say to yourself, "it's not very likely that any couple would have five boys", and you would be correct...
Yes, BBBBB is rare. But BBBBG is just as rare (at least statistically. In practical terms, I suspect that having four boys in a row would be too exhausting and irritating, so they'd have given up by then).
Yeah, unless they have a lot of yard work they need done. Anyway, {BBBBG,BBBGB, BBGBB, BGBBB, GBBBB} is less rare.