Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
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Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
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Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#2On the one hand you have the growing trend of kids and teenagers investing heavily in tablets and smartphones, and would see that as their go to standard for gaming in the next 10 years.
One the other hand, the concept of the tv and a centralized hub of media and entertainment continues to persist regardless of emerging technology markets.
Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#3On the one hand you have the growing trend of kids and teenagers investing heavily in tablets and smartphones, and would see that as their go to standard for gaming in the next 10 years. One the other hand, the concept of the tv and a centralized hub of media and entertainment continues to persist regardless of emerging technology markets.
I can't help but think that a service like Onlive will play a significant role in this. People will just use Airplay, Smartglass, etc. to get their game on the TV.
Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#4> ...consoles may soon become a niche product for highly dedicated, purist consumers.
Isn't that the role that high-end gaming PCs fill now? It sounds like he's saying game consoles as we know them are just going to go away.
Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#5Except the gaming equivalent of an audiophile is a PC gamer, constantly fiddling with his "rig" to get THE most high-quality graphics at THE fastest framerate he can manage.
Consoles are like Bose Wave Stereos.
Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#6I tend to agree. My phone & laptop can play games, make calls, browse the web, stream media and connect me to my friends, regardless of where I am. Why do I want an expensive hunk of hardware sitting next to my TV (both of which) that I barely use?
Consoles need to offer something different to stand out. I bought a PS3 to play a specific game and because it was the cheapest Blu Ray player at the time. With consoles getting less exclusives & more games I want to play getting distributed to my phone & computer, I can't say the console really offers me anything of worth...
Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#7I think consoles will become niche because networks will eventually get fast enough so that you see the same dynamic with games that you see with blue-ray/movies. Instead of players needing to buy expensive, specialized graphics rendering equipment they can just connect to a service using whatever user-input/video-playing device they have. Sites like onlive are already trying to do this (though obviously, they aren't really there yet)
Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#8It's clear that the console market is at a turning point.
The Xbox360, PS3 and Wii have all (AFAIK) gone well beyond the lifespans of their predecessors. It's just taking longer and longer to recoup that investment.
When they came out they were much better (in price-performance terms) than their PC equivalents. As expected, this lasts no longer than 6-12 months.
Rumor has it that the next Playstation will be subpar compared tot he PCs of that time [1] (read the whole thing).
One issue with the PS3/Xbox style gaming is that we're hitting a wall when it comes to improved graphics. Graphics are getting better but not at a rate that people tend to care about. The bigger problem is that those improved graphics come at the cost of content creation (meaning it's more expensive to develop a "level" with more complex models, higher res textures and so forth). Games are getting shorter [2].
At the same time mobile gaming is taking off. Tablets (and possibly phones) are becoming the new consoles. The current iPad has 1GB of RAM and some pretty impressive graphics (given the form factor). And it's only getting better for the foreseeable future.
Mobile gaming I think will hurt Nintendo the most and I see a not insignificant possibility that Nintendo will end up like Sega and just be a software house. I seem to remember reading something about their investors questioning them not bringing their valuable franchises to iOS.
[1]: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2012/04/the-x86-playstation-4-...
[2]: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2011/04/the-incredible-shrinki...
Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#9I'm somewhat surprised he isn't predicting something closer to a mix of the OnLive strategy partnered with the last-mile provider (Comcast, AT&T, etc.). It seems like some way of letting game makers or these services rent space in data centers on the last mile (ala the datacenters at the CME, NYSE, NASDAQ, etc.) might make it possible to deal with the fps latency issue and stream to a fairly dumb client that runs on most console/set-top box platforms.
Certainly, if I were making a 5/10-year bet, that'd be it.
Re: Carmack: Consoles could become a niche
#10The current generation of game-consoles have had a long lifecycle as it is. The Xbox has now been around what, 7 years?
All consoles will definitely begin to become a niche product. I think the more avid gamers will go back to using their PC. Don't get me wrong, I love using my iPad.. but not for "serious" gaming. Angry Birds, yes. Halo, no.
I cannot see consoles living forever though, there are already so many ways to have a "full media experience", which is what the current consoles are trying to offer to make them a viable part of everyone's living room.