The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
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Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#2[flagged]
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#3It's not that nobody listens, it's that the information disseminated via the media is not what's correct, but rather what is politically expedient at the moment.
Case in point: where in the article is the INR's brilliant prediction about the future of the war in Ukraine?
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#4It's not that nobody listens, it's that the information disseminated via the media is not what's correct, but rather what is politically expedient at the moment. Case in point: where in the article is the INR's brilliant prediction about the future of the war in Ukraine?
>Case in point: where in the article is the INR's brilliant prediction about the future of the war in Ukraine?
Maybe the INR doesn't reveal predictions of that nature to the public or media?
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#5It's not that nobody listens, it's that the information disseminated via the media is not what's correct, but rather what is politically expedient at the moment. Case in point: where in the article is the INR's brilliant prediction about the future of the war in Ukraine?
Their production is not public. All links in the article to past production actually go to third-party papers analyzing their historic, declassified production.
TBH the article makes it clear they are not perfect, by mentioning that they got Iran badly wrong.
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#6Sounds like their success comes from not starting with the results you want and reverse engineering the reasoning to justify the outcome.
Who would have thought removing top-down agendas and starting with a bottom-up approach would end up with a better picture of the truth!
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#7Sounds like their success comes from not starting with the results you want and reverse engineering the reasoning to justify the outcome. Who would have thought removing top-down agendas and starting with a bottom-up approach would end up with a better picture of the truth!
Also... I wonder if this article was specifically published because internally to INR they can see it's happening /yet again/ on some politicised matter (e.g China) and this is their cry out for help.
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#8[deleted]
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#9What I gathered from this is that not the INR is full of oracles or people who have the magic skill to foresee the future but rather really smart people who based on past experience can see patterns of behavior and infer future state from that. Then, they are so small they are required to innovate and iterate on intelligence.
Re: The obscure intelligence bureau that got Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine right
#10I'm guessing the purpose of the CIA is to produce information which leads to political actions that yield financial benefits for the country while the purpose of INR is to produce accurate information without concern for financial benefits. The fact that the government thought it needed 2 organizations to do what is supposed to be the same job shows that neither organization is doing the full job properly. It's almost like they need 2 versions of the 'truth' so that they can weigh up convenient half-truths against inconvenient whole truths.