Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
noahpinion.blog
Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
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Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#2TL;DR: Humans can be worse than robots in everything and still have well paying jobs due to comparative advantage.
Comparative advantage: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#3[deleted]
Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#4TL;DR: Humans can be worse than robots in everything and still have well paying jobs due to comparative advantage. Comparative advantage : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
The main advantage of humans for now is interaction with the physical world, once that it is solved (near end of the year will start with Tesla bot and similar), then it is going to make humans be less at an advantage.
This way humans can fallback to their main activity: which is not art; because art has been taken by AI; but eating.
At least eating is not something AI plans to do.
Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#5TL;DR: Humans can be worse than robots in everything and still have well paying jobs due to comparative advantage. Comparative advantage : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
The main advantage of humans for now is interaction with the physical world, once that it is solved (near end of the year will start with Tesla bot and similar), then it is going to make humans be less at an advantage. This way humans can fallback to their main activity: which is not art; because art has been taken by AI; but eating. At least eating is not something AI plans to do.
Have there actually been advances in robotics that could make them mainstream, or is the progress still painfully slow? I think robotics would be the next logical step after AI hype, but I'm having hard time figuring out which company will be the next Nvidia there.
Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#6While there’s an absolute comparative advantage, this analysis ignores a subsidized comparative advantage from VC money. It talks about comparative advantage changing over time, but that’s not quite what I’m getting at.
Most LLMs are currently run at a loss as far as I know. If a company can do that long enough to put an industry out of work, that’s a huge problem.
Combine that with advertising that the AI is better or safer than a human doing the job, and humans might not be allowed back in the industry even if the AI competitive advantage becomes unsubsidized.
Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#7TL;DR: Humans can be worse than robots in everything and still have well paying jobs due to comparative advantage. Comparative advantage : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
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Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#8TL;DR: Humans can be worse than robots in everything and still have well paying jobs due to comparative advantage. Comparative advantage : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
Yes, but this is an advantage that will become less and less true, very quickly.
It's not like we will converge to some state where AI workers and human workers will coexist in some ratio.
Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
The main advantage of humans for now is interaction with the physical world, once that it is solved (near end of the year will start with Tesla bot and similar), then it is going to make humans be less at an advantage. This way humans can fallback to their main activity: which is not art; because art has been taken by AI; but eating. At least eating is not something AI plans to do.
Have there actually been advances in robotics that could make them mainstream, or is the progress still painfully slow? I think robotics would be the next logical step after AI hype, but I'm having hard time figuring out which company will be the next Nvidia there.
No one is there yet.
We have made enormous jumps with transformer models (language models being integrated in the stack, and vision language models (VLM), and even vision language action models (VLA)). Pair this with recent advances in reinforcement learning and we can do things we couldn't do a few years ago; the whole space is fascinating!
...but we're nowhere near usable robotics in complex human environments for complex multistage tasks yet. It's an incredibly difficult problem where we still don't have the hardware, the software, or the sensors for it. The other thing to keep in mind is that since it's so expensive and difficult to do, there's no marketplace yet driving significant advances like we had with phones to hone in on such efficient amazing pieces of tech across the industry.
I wrote a bit about where we're at with the research last year; it's a bit out of date with even cooler advancements, which is why I'm working on another article in the same vein now.
https://hlfshell.ai/posts/llms-and-robotics-papers-2023/
I also did a project (Master's thesis) integrating an LLM into a ROS2 stack as a high level action planner, specifically to prove that LLMs have contextual understanding of the real world that can benefit planning missions.
https://hlfshell.ai/posts/llm-task-planner/
Always happy to talk this subject.
Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI
#10TL;DR: Humans can be worse than robots in everything and still have well paying jobs due to comparative advantage. Comparative advantage : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
The main advantage of humans for now is interaction with the physical world, once that it is solved (near end of the year will start with Tesla bot and similar), then it is going to make humans be less at an advantage. This way humans can fallback to their main activity: which is not art; because art has been taken by AI; but eating. At least eating is not something AI plans to do.
Not just eating, but reproducing and seeking pleasure from anything they can.