Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
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Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#2Amara’s law aptly captures the dichotomy in our perception of technological advancements like AI. As we navigate the short-term challenges and excitement, it’s crucial to maintain a balanced perspective, acknowledging both the current limitations and the vast potential.
Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#3https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara
> We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
Amara's Law is a good one, esp in these circles where we have many people working on cutting edge technology. They often give up because it doesn't see adoption, and then move on to something else. Two or three cycles later, when that technology is finally gaining traction, someone takes some off the shelf components and slaps it together, profiting in ways that the original creators would have liked to have seen.
Timing is everything, and the technoseti are often _too early_. But they also underestimate how big something will get.
I am a huge Python fan, but I never expected back in 2000 that it would be as big as it is today. Never. Cloud Computing, NLP, etc. Google suffers from this immensely.
Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#4[deleted]
Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#5https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara > We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. Amara's Law is a good one, esp in these circles where we have many people working on cutting edge technology. They often give up because it doesn't see adoption, and then move on to something else. Two or three cycles later, when that technology is finally gaining…
Amen. I wonder what "underestimating" something like AGI actually means though...
Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#6https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara > We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. Amara's Law is a good one, esp in these circles where we have many people working on cutting edge technology. They often give up because it doesn't see adoption, and then move on to something else. Two or three cycles later, when that technology is finally gaining…
Amen. I wonder what "underestimating" something like AGI actually means though...
By the time AGI arrives, the world will have already been transformed in ways we cannot fathom by intelligence much lower than AGI. Look at the impact that computing has already had, and that is mostly accounting and simulation. Building and factory automation is on the order of a couple if statements. Most programmers can't implement a PID loop.
I am not scared by AGI. But to get to AGI you have to pass through a couple points on a curve that occupy the most powerful in terms of agency, less than AGI. An angry toddler that has > 1TW (terawatts) of power.
Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#7https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara > We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. Amara's Law is a good one, esp in these circles where we have many people working on cutting edge technology. They often give up because it doesn't see adoption, and then move on to something else. Two or three cycles later, when that technology is finally gaining…
Amen. I wonder what "underestimating" something like AGI actually means though...
Assuming it's aligned and we're still around…
AGI? Lots of people are still talking like it will be an assistant, perhaps using the "centaur" metaphor, and refusing to believe that it could[0] result in everyone's mental capacities having all the economic relevance of equine muscle power.
ASI? We don't know how far above us IQ can go, but it seems reasonable to guess that the smallest possible margin above us is such that even asking that question is like asking the question is akin to asking Chimpanzees to imagine the moon landing, while at worst it's like asking your lawn the same question.
[0] I say "could" rather than "will" because there's always the question of "how much does it cost to run that software?" — but the cost of 3430 W at $0.03/kWh matches the World Bank's international poverty line inflation adjusted to 2022: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%283430+watts+*+%240.03...
Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
Amen. I wonder what "underestimating" something like AGI actually means though...
By the time AGI arrives, the world will have already been transformed in ways we cannot fathom by intelligence much lower than AGI. Look at the impact that computing has already had, and that is mostly accounting and simulation. Building and factory automation is on the order of a couple if statements. Most programmers can't implement a PID loop. I am not scared by AGI. But to get to AGI you have to pass through a co…
Agree, the path might be quite bumpy but so could the endgame. Whether AGI wants to help or kill the human race will depend on how aligned it is to our goals. Now, since "our" goals will depend on whoever has the metaphysical ear of such AI this could be problematic.
Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#9https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara > We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. Amara's Law is a good one, esp in these circles where we have many people working on cutting edge technology. They often give up because it doesn't see adoption, and then move on to something else. Two or three cycles later, when that technology is finally gaining…
Python's popularity is more tragedy than success story.
Re: Evolution of AI and Amara's Law
#10This law is true in some cases, but I think is too often used as the tech industry's version of "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win". The argument is that, sure, a technology's promise may have not panned out, but under Amara's law, we can expect a commensurately massive impact later.
As Carl Sagan pointed out, "…the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses." The same applies to technologies. The fact that a technology has shown slower-than-expected progress is not a foolproof indication that it will eventually have massive impact. It may just not be as useful as it initially seemed, or may even be supplanted by a completely different technology.