Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
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Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#2That was compellingly argued. I'd like to see the braking distances fully loaded too.
Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#3"This is a really, really high bar."
And an arbitrary one, in my opinion. We will be racking up millions of driven miles by hundreds of autonomous trucks before that bar is reached. We will have drivers in the trucks. We will have connections to remote operators.
Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#4"This is a really, really high bar." And an arbitrary one, in my opinion. We will be racking up millions of driven miles by hundreds of autonomous trucks before that bar is reached. We will have drivers in the trucks. We will have connections to remote operators.
The article calls out the challenge of stopping distance and sensing range. Drive Hwy80 over the Sierra Nevada mountains in winter, stopping, predictability, many other factors come up as well.
Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#5Just spitballing but it seems a unique aspect of a human driver is their fear for loss of life. We're all subtly terrified we are about to die and that keeps us sharp and responsive and thoughtful while driving.
Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#6I’m confused as to the author’s reasoning.
They claim that stoping distance and non-normal driving conditions are an issue but these are precisely the same problems that AVs meant for ride share face but with a difference performance profile. The computer doesn’t care if it’s hauling 20 tons or 2 tons, what matters is we give it the correct performance profile and install adequate equipment to operate the vehicle safely.
The only real argument I see here is the limp mode case where it detects an error and must pull off. I can see the actual freeway being a problem here but then we just make sure the routes they initially travel have been checked prior to deployment - it’s a finite road that can be mapped and tested against. This can be further mitigated by having redundant computer systems and redundant environment sensors than it can fall back on to be able to safely pull off the side of the road or even make it to its next stop. Computers can make faster, more-informed decisions about nearly every driving situation and the challenges with operating heavy machinery are well understood.
The reason autonomous trucking has not been developed is not because of R&D, it all has to do with scale and what the funding is chasing. Running a truck is expensive, especially with a large load. Financing a project would have a lot of money dumped into the just the construction or retrofitting of a truck and it’s operation for roughly the same computer as the smaller vehicle - just with a different performance profile. When the vehicle you are testing has a kerb weight of 1100lbs and is electric, your maintenance costs plummet to almost nothing with fuel being electricity. We don’t have the same luxury with trucking. Additionally, Uber, Lyft, et al, are bullish on this technology because they would rather collect fares and pay a fixed cost for vehicles than having to deal with drivers that want silly things like compensation. The gig companies are also looking down a barrel of a loaded, regularly-shotgun that could drastically cut into their revenue. The dollars they are investing into AVs only care about ride share now.
Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#7"This is a really, really high bar." And an arbitrary one, in my opinion. We will be racking up millions of driven miles by hundreds of autonomous trucks before that bar is reached. We will have drivers in the trucks. We will have connections to remote operators.
The article calls out the challenge of stopping distance and sensing range. Drive Hwy80 over the Sierra Nevada mountains in winter, stopping, predictability, many other factors come up as well.
I know that “just put it on a freight train” doesn’t solve every logistics problem but it does kind of address this one. Maybe their solution should be focused on improving transloading between truck and train and using autonomous trucking to solve the “last mile(s)” problem for trains.
Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#8That was compellingly argued. I'd like to see the braking distances fully loaded too.
But an autonomous truck can just go slower, no? It never gets tired, so unless there is a logistic pressure, it would be reasonable to trade speed for safety.
Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#9DALL-E prompt produced a road with a semi on the wrong side of a no-pass divider line. Love it.
Anyway, the speed doesn't have to be 50mph. Do 40mph on late night trips. More EV range/gas efficient anyway.
The deceleration would likely be helped by an EV drivetrain where regen and braking can contribute to stopping. Likewise the high-torque EV motors can accelerate a semi far more manageably.
Emergency/Fault stops should likely be handled by convergent infrastructure, or only using routes with sufficient shoulders.
How many scene understandings can be done with on-demand manual takeover? Highways generally have some of the best cell/data networks, and again, convergent evolution of infrastructure.
Sensor distance can probably be improved with the concept of a "scout car". Likely automated trucks would drive in formation (to draft to get better efficiency), a lead car can scout and provide additional effective distance. This car doesn't even need to be a full size car, it could be a smaller teardrop-optimized drone. And if the drone crashes or faults, the following train automatically pulls to the side.
Trucking routes can benefit from neural nets tailored to repetitive navigations of the route. No handling general queries, the tractors (or the control system utilized) isn't driving "a general truck". It is driving from Minneapolis to Chicago.
I think I disagree with the article. It assumes too fast for the vehicle, too general of routes.
Oh, my final disagreement may be the total size of the vehicle. Once automated vehicles can drive at distance ... do you need a massive tractor trailer, or can you instead use more capable (and more cheaply mass produced) vans or smaller form factors? The industry is what it is in current state and a trailer ~= a container, so I guess I see why that wouldn't be a go.
Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare
#10If he thinks driving cars in cities is the easiest problem, he does not have experience driving a car in a European city with lots of cyclists and pedestrians.
Driving a car in inner Copenhagen is a stressful situation due to the insane number of cyclist you have to watch out for, see https://youtu.be/FaySp9i2zMA?t=113