Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#2This would make sense since the Gallup survey is based on people's perceptions based on social & traditional media that they see regularly. People remember notable events or shocking things, no one remembers the regular days where everything just went as normal - and the media doesn't cover such things since they are looking to grab attention with headlines.
The article mentions this at the end as outlier incidents, but just giving people the overall statistics may not help change their mind either because of what they perceive from other media sources.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#3"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully feel like crime is increasing because they see all this happening around them. Alas, the media and politicians say 'nothing is happening' because now prostitution, theft, and drugs are decriminalized. I am only in my mid 30s and have lived in California my entire life and I've never seen more open drug use, more theft/shoplifting, and prostitution is now more flagrant than it's ever been. Things really seem to accelerate into a free fall after prop 47 was passed.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#4anger and "concern" about rising crime is a great way to pump the impressions numbers.
i love these "research shows" crime articles. their research methodology is hilarious:
https://www.foxnews.com/us/most-unsafe-cities-holiday-season...
> Rockville, Maryland, ranked No. 1 for having the largest percentage of Airbnb properties without security cameras
isn't that... a good thing? i feel like not having security cameras usually means you don't feel like you need to have an eye on everything... and privacy at an airbnb is quite nice. might find a reason to visit rockville!
> Newark, Delaware, ranked No. 1 for Google searches related to holiday security
i feel like the only relation to actual safety here is the word "security" in this sentence.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#5"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…
Especially in cities like SF.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#6For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#7There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#8For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.
You mean backing things up with facts instead of anecdotes is thought control? What?
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#9"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…
I keep posting this because there’s always this comment.
There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes.
Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US.
And homicides are decreasing.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#10"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…
It seems like this effect should be measurable in some kind of principled way.
Also, there are some crimes that haven't been decriminalized and are hard to sweep under the carpet (murder, manslaughter, etc). Are there trends for those crimes?
Edit: The article does say that murder is down in big cities, but there is some weasel text in there about it being down "since the pandemic" which leaves me wondering whether it's up or down since, say, 2017.
Edit 2: This paper seems to be on point, at least in California: https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023...
Homicides per 100k population hit a low of 1679 in 2019 and bounced up to 2206 in 2022. I don't know the numbers for 2023 yet, but that does suggest the original article is misleading. I would note, though, that this is against a rate of 3530 in 1995.