GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
deepmind.google
GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
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Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#2I continue to be a little confused by the distinction between Google, Google Research and DeepMind. Google Research, had made this announcement about 24-hour forecasting just 2 weeks ago:
https://blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-n... (which is also mentioned in the GraphCast announcement from today)
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#3This is fascinating:
> For inputs, GraphCast requires just two sets of data: the state of the weather 6 hours ago, and the current state of the weather. The model then predicts the weather 6 hours in the future. This process can then be rolled forward in 6-hour increments to provide state-of-the-art forecasts up to 10 days in advance.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#4I've been following these global ML weather models. The fact they make good forecasts at all was very impressive. What is blowing my mind is how fast they run. It takes hours on giant super computers for numerical weather prediction models to forecast the entire globe. These ML models are taking minutes or seconds. This is potentially huge for operational forecasting.
Weather forecasting has been moving focus towards ensembles to account for uncertainty in forecasts. I see a future of large ensembles of ML models being ran hourly incorporating the latest measurements
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#5I live in an area which regularly has a climate differently then forecasted: often less rain and more sunny. Would be great if I can connect my local weather station (and/or its history) to some model and have more accurate forecasts.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#6I continue to be a little confused by the distinction between Google, Google Research and DeepMind. Google Research, had made this announcement about 24-hour forecasting just 2 weeks ago: https://blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-n... (which is also mentioned in the GraphCast announcement from today)
DeepMind recently merged with the Brain team from Google Research to form `Google DeepMind`. It seems this was done to have Google DeepMind focused primarily (only?) on AI research, leaving Google Research to work on other things in more than 20 research areas. Still, some AI research involves both orgs, including MetNet in weather forecasting.
In any case, GraphCast is a 10-day global model, whereas MetNet is a 24-hour regional model, among other differences.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#7I continue to be a little confused by the distinction between Google, Google Research and DeepMind. Google Research, had made this announcement about 24-hour forecasting just 2 weeks ago: https://blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-n... (which is also mentioned in the GraphCast announcement from today)
DeepMind recently merged with the Brain team from Google Research to form `Google DeepMind`. It seems this was done to have Google DeepMind focused primarily (only?) on AI research, leaving Google Research to work on other things in more than 20 research areas. Still, some AI research involves both orgs, including MetNet in weather forecasting. In any case, GraphCast is a 10-day global model, whereas MetNet is a 24-h…
Good explanation. Now that both the 24-hour regional and 10-day global models have been announced in technical/research detail, I supposed there might still be a general blog post about how improved forecasting is when you search for "weather" or check the forecast on Android.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#8I live in an area which regularly has a climate differently then forecasted: often less rain and more sunny. Would be great if I can connect my local weather station (and/or its history) to some model and have more accurate forecasts.
Because weather data is interpolated between multiple stations, you wouldn't even need the local station position, your own position would be more accurate as it'd take a lot more parameters into account.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#9I've been following these global ML weather models. The fact they make good forecasts at all was very impressive. What is blowing my mind is how fast they run. It takes hours on giant super computers for numerical weather prediction models to forecast the entire globe. These ML models are taking minutes or seconds. This is potentially huge for operational forecasting. Weather forecasting has been moving focus towards…
Not to take away from the excitement but ML weather prediction builds upon the years of data produced by numerical models on supercomputers. It cannot do anything without that computation and its forecasts are dependent on the quality of that computation. Ensemble models are already used to quantify uncertainty (it’s referenced in their paper).
But it is exciting that they are able to recognize patterns in multi year and produce medium term forecasts.
Some comments here suggest this replaces supercomputers models. This would a wrong conclusion.It does not (the paper explicitly states this). It uses their output as input data.
Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting
#10I continue to be a little confused by the distinction between Google, Google Research and DeepMind. Google Research, had made this announcement about 24-hour forecasting just 2 weeks ago: https://blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-n... (which is also mentioned in the GraphCast announcement from today)
DeepMind recently merged with the Brain team from Google Research to form `Google DeepMind`. It seems this was done to have Google DeepMind focused primarily (only?) on AI research, leaving Google Research to work on other things in more than 20 research areas. Still, some AI research involves both orgs, including MetNet in weather forecasting. In any case, GraphCast is a 10-day global model, whereas MetNet is a 24-h…
Is there a colab example (and/or have they released the models) for MetNet like they have here for GraphCast?