Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
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Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#2For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take.
Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is.
Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes.
A few degrees less warming and it might not have been possible.
Chaos is STRANGE. It's sensitive to initial conditions. One of those conditions is the total energy in the system. This is what happens when you add a few degrees to the whole planet. It'll act normal, sort of, maybe for quite a while… then bam.
Because this is what you get when you add energy to a chaotic system the size of a planet, and it will happen again. We just got a picture of the new range of possible event… or of something WITHIN the new range of possible event, which by no means is guaranteed to be the most dramatic climate outcome currently possible.
This was probably on the high end of possible events but might not even be the most extreme thing that can now happen with this level of climate energy.
Climate energy is still increasing.
Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#3[flagged]
Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#4For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…
I agree with all of this except the first sentence. Weather people understand all this too, but forecasters were genuinely shocked by the speed of the transition from tropical storm to cat 5 - a process that they're used to observing over days suddenly took place within hours. Knowing a thing and seeing/experiencing it directly are very different.
I'm shocked myself by the degree of devastation, and suspect the reported death toll is low. Some of the damage can be ascribed to corruption and lax building codes, But the sight of multiple recently constructed high rise buildings completely trashed has to be sending a cold chill down the spines of insurers and emergency planners.
Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#5For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…
And we have 10 to 20 years before effects from current emissions are felt: https://earth.org/data_visualization/the-time-lag-of-climate...
As COVID-19 showed us, humans aren't great at dealing with delayed effects.
Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#6For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…
You confuse weather forecast with climate forecast. Climate is the weather averaged over 30 years.
The author certainly knows about climate change and the intensification of events due to warmer seas, landmasses and air.
This article is about a particular storm and how models failed to predict the outcome.
Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#7Cloudflare blocked me from accessing it.
edit: wow, that was some unexpected downvotes
Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#8For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…
And we have 10 to 20 years before effects from current emissions are felt: https://earth.org/data_visualization/the-time-lag-of-climate... As COVID-19 showed us, humans aren't great at dealing with delayed effects.
Especially when we really, really don't want to.
Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#9For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…
> Adding energy to the system
Best estimates I've found to date: [ EDIT: 0.6-0.8 ] * Petawatts * of extra energy circulating in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic changes to radiative forcing.
EDIT: For the people downvoting this because "watts are units of power not energy", please read the Wikipedia page on radiative forcing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing
For the people downvoting because they can't believe the number, here's where i took the value from: https://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2012/01/how-much-extra-ener... ... I did quote it incorrectly, by 1 order of magnitude (out of 16!)
For the people who still argue with the use of watts, despite that being a standard for this, here's the author of the above link on this point:
> Note: Before anyone complains, I’ve deliberately conflated energy and power above, because the difference doesn’t really matter for my main point. Power is work per unit of time, and is measured in watts; Energy is better expressed in joules, calories, or kilowatt hours (kWh). To be technically correct, I should say that the earth is getting about 300 terawatt hours of energy per hour due to anthropogenic climate change, and humans use about 16 terawatt hours of energy per hour. The ratio is still approximately 18.
Out of interest, you can also convert it to calories. 1kWh is about 0.8 million calories. So, we’re force-feeding the earth about 2 x 1017 (200,000,000,000,000,000) calories every hour. Yikes.
Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco
#10For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…
The post is written in the context of weather models, not just the idea of climate and weather and what is possible. It is expected that this is possible - but none of the models currently in use for short term forecasting showed anything close to what actually happened.