Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
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Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#2Oh, yes, its not linear, its exponential the moment..
Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#3Oh, yes, its not linear, its exponential the moment..
Yeah, they have a graph of temperatures from 1940 onwards with a linear trend line— but just by looking at the data points, it seems that an exponential curve would fit the data better.
Maybe someone more skilled than me has analyzed that already? Because just eyeballing it, is really making me nervous about the exponential future projection of that graph of the next 20 years
Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#4> Burgess said the summer had been one of tumbling records and it would only get worse if the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels.
It would get worse even if we stopped burning fossil fuels immediately. Because of lag effects, tipping points, and masking.
Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#5Oh, yes, its not linear, its exponential the moment..
Yeah, they have a graph of temperatures from 1940 onwards with a linear trend line— but just by looking at the data points, it seems that an exponential curve would fit the data better. Maybe someone more skilled than me has analyzed that already? Because just eyeballing it, is really making me nervous about the exponential future projection of that graph of the next 20 years
This was discussed in the latest episode of The Ezra Klein Show[1]. Apparently aerosols artificially held down temperatures roughly 1940–1980, after which they started to be reduced (from my memory of what they discussed). So it might be that the contribution of the greenhouse effect is masked in that period of the temperature graph.
1: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/05/opinion/ezra-klein-podcas...
Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#6> Burgess said the summer had been one of tumbling records and it would only get worse if the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels. It would get worse even if we stopped burning fossil fuels immediately. Because of lag effects, tipping points, and masking.
Why is this relevant: you seem to imply “don’t bother”.
I would disagree strongly.
Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#7> Burgess said the summer had been one of tumbling records and it would only get worse if the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels. It would get worse even if we stopped burning fossil fuels immediately. Because of lag effects, tipping points, and masking.
The argument to immediately stop burning fossil fuels is a radical position which few take seriously.
But you seem to be arguing that it'd be pointless in the same way that pressing the break in the immediate moment before a car accident is futile. Sure it might not help a lot, but I'd argue it's still the right call and will rarely make the situation worse.
Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#8Oh, yes, its not linear, its exponential the moment..
Yeah, they have a graph of temperatures from 1940 onwards with a linear trend line— but just by looking at the data points, it seems that an exponential curve would fit the data better. Maybe someone more skilled than me has analyzed that already? Because just eyeballing it, is really making me nervous about the exponential future projection of that graph of the next 20 years
Scroll to the end:
https://xkcd.com/1732/
Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#9> Burgess said the summer had been one of tumbling records and it would only get worse if the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels. It would get worse even if we stopped burning fossil fuels immediately. Because of lag effects, tipping points, and masking.
So the solution would be to continue emitting greenhouse gases and ensure it will also get worse in 30 or 50 years?
> The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.
Said to be a Chinese proverb, but I haven't extensively verified.
The only viable solution right now to combat global warming is to immediately stop emitting greenhouse gases, even if there is a lag effect.
Re: Northern summer was hottest on record by a significant margin
#10> Burgess said the summer had been one of tumbling records and it would only get worse if the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels. It would get worse even if we stopped burning fossil fuels immediately. Because of lag effects, tipping points, and masking.
Why is this relevant: you seem to imply “don’t bother”. I would disagree strongly.
I get the opposite implication, i.e. Holy shit, even if we hit the brakes we're gonna slide over the cliff with momentum.