A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
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Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#2Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#3> Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
The abstract also says that the collapse would impact the north Atlantic region, but in what way? Assuming the prediction is accurate, what changes could we expect to see in that scenario? Wikipedia suggests that temperatures in northern Europe would drop significantly + sea levels would rise, but is that all? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#4Last sentence in the Abstract:
"We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions."
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#5Last sentence in the Abstract: "We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions."
Further in the paper
"The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095."
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#6Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century.
In reference to the cmip model, the article says:
> There are, however, model biases toward overestimated stability of the AMOC, both from tuning to the historic climate record, poor representation of the deep water formation, salinity and glacial runoff.
The article goes in to say why they disagree with the cmip assessment, and rather believe it could happen “around mid century” of the current century.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#7An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read.
TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#8Last sentence in the Abstract: "We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions."
Further in the paper "The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095."
Whoof. Those are some spooky error bars.
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#9An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read. TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
So if this continues it will result in a 5C drop in temprature across North America and Europe? Am I understanding this correctly.
Which for reference a 5C drop should mean that New York is covered in glacier according to this source https://xkcd.com/1732/
Re: A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
#10An article from livescience.com that may be worth a read. TLDR: if slowdown occurs, temperatures could drop by 5C in Europe and North America. What a 5C drop actually looks like they don't say. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/gulf...
I suppose that energy still has to go somewhere. Which place will warm up if Europe and North America cool down?