Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
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Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#2[deleted]
Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#3Im so fed up with this click garnering nonsense. I've had two teslas, and driven probably 200k miles on them since 2018, the majority of freeway miles on autopilot. How many times has autopilot created a dangerous situation? Zero. Zero times. Do I play with my phone and fall asleep while using it? No of course not. But it removes the cognitive load of making micro adjustments to the course of the vehicle. Has it done odd stuff? Yeah for a while it would brake for bridge shadows. Did this cause a ten car pile-up? No of course not, it was rectified by a tap on the accelerator. For me the issue is clear. Bad drivers are bad drivers, given any tool, they will remain idiots.
Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#4Im so fed up with this click garnering nonsense. I've had two teslas, and driven probably 200k miles on them since 2018, the majority of freeway miles on autopilot. How many times has autopilot created a dangerous situation? Zero. Zero times. Do I play with my phone and fall asleep while using it? No of course not. But it removes the cognitive load of making micro adjustments to the course of the vehicle. Has it done…
This is not about Autopilot, it’s about the “Full Self-Driving” system.
Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#5Taking their calculations at face value, they estimate the fatality rate of Tesla's system as 11.3 deaths per 100 million miles.
That is more than a standard car, but it isn't the most dangerous thing we allow on the road. For example, the fatality rate of riding a motorcycle is 31.64 deaths per 100 million miles.
source: https://www.californiaaccidentattorneysblog.com/california-m...
The per-mile risk of a self-driving Tesla is roughly the same (within the range of estimates this source gives) as the per-mile risk of riding a bicycle.
source: https://bicycleuniverse.com/bicycle-safety-almanac/
It doesn't really make sense to ban this new technology which is basically in the middle of the pack in terms of risk. Personally, I don't have a Tesla, and I would be reluctant to use their self-driving technology. But I don't ride motorcycles either. I don't think we should ban either of those things; consenting adults should be allowed to take the one-in-a-million risk that is driving ten miles in a self-driving Tesla, just like they are allowed to ride motorcycles.
Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#6Im so fed up with this click garnering nonsense. I've had two teslas, and driven probably 200k miles on them since 2018, the majority of freeway miles on autopilot. How many times has autopilot created a dangerous situation? Zero. Zero times. Do I play with my phone and fall asleep while using it? No of course not. But it removes the cognitive load of making micro adjustments to the course of the vehicle. Has it done…
1. As mentioned, this article is about Full Self Driving Beta Pro Black Edition, but it's important to note that it is commonly confused with Autopilot, and vice versa. Even the most die-hard Tesla fans routinely confuse the two (example: you saw "Self-Driving System" and somehow that registered as "Autopilot").
2. It's only click garnering nonsense if you don't bother reading the article.
3. I respect your thoughts and experiences with Autopilot, but your experience will never invalidate other people's experiences, nor cold hard data.
4. If bad drivers will always be bad drivers given any tool (which I'm inclined to agree), doesn't that invalidate Elon's claim that FSD will actually allow you to be an absent driver, one that doesn't look out the windows, plays games and drinks alcohol?
Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#7This is a unsupported analysis. Despite the California DMV mandatory reporting requirements for autonomous driving systems (ADS) with a safety driver [1], FSD under open beta testing with a safety driver has been deliberately underclassified by Tesla to not qualify as a autonomous driving system to suppress disclosure of their raw usage data [2]. As the only entity with the raw information is the manufacturer which has a inherent conflict of interest, no robust untainted safety analysis is possible.
The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) does have a standing general order (SGO) [3] requiring the disclosure of all ADAS incidents [4]. However, Tesla redacts which system and version was in use in all reports citing proprietary information unlike other manufacturers which only redact in a small fraction of their reports. In addition, a cursory examination (filter to Report Type 10-Day Update) shows 749 Tesla incidents with 711 having unknown injury severity. This is distinct from "No Injuries Reported" where they know that no injury occurred; they only know for certain that nobody died in less than 5% of the cases. This is again in contrast to all other manufacturers combined which only have a total of 203 incidents of which only 63 have unknown severity. That is 5% known for Tesla versus 70% known for all other manufacturers, a 14x difference. The deliberate censoring of the incident information by Tesla makes it even more impossible to do a meaningful analysis.
So, not only is the denominator suppressed, even the numerator is censored. It is straight up impossible for any third party to do any analysis. As the default assumption with safety-critical systems is that they are unsafe, and it is literally impossible for any untainted safety analysis to be done, it is affirmatively unsafe until at a minimum they stop suppressing the incident and usage information that they are legally required to disclose.
[1] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...
[2] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/02/17/2022-disen...
[3] https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/standing-general-orde...
[4] https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/ffdd/sgo-2021-01/SGO-2021-01_In...
Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#8Taking their calculations at face value, they estimate the fatality rate of Tesla's system as 11.3 deaths per 100 million miles. That is more than a standard car, but it isn't the most dangerous thing we allow on the road. For example, the fatality rate of riding a motorcycle is 31.64 deaths per 100 million miles. source: https://www.californiaaccidentattorneysblog.com/california-m... The per-mile risk of a self-driv…
Motorcyclists and bicyclists take their own risks. Tesla drivers risk killing others as well as themselves.
Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#9I’ve noticed when Tesla stock goes on a run, a wave of such articles and posts begin appearing. This particular posters history only posts about Tesla in a negative light.
Re: Tesla’s “Self-Driving” System Never Should Have Been Allowed on the Road
#10Taking their calculations at face value, they estimate the fatality rate of Tesla's system as 11.3 deaths per 100 million miles. That is more than a standard car, but it isn't the most dangerous thing we allow on the road. For example, the fatality rate of riding a motorcycle is 31.64 deaths per 100 million miles. source: https://www.californiaaccidentattorneysblog.com/california-m... The per-mile risk of a self-driv…
> The per-mile risk of a self-driving Tesla is roughly the same (within the range of estimates this source gives) as the per-mile risk of riding a bicycle.
That may be true, but the reader is reminded that a typical car trip is probably five to ten times as far as a typical bike trip (is that a reasonable guess?), so the risk per trip is five to ten times as high. The safety figures often quoted for plane travel share similar characteristics.