Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
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Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#2As Scott Alexander at ACX recently said:
"AGE OF MIRACLES AND WONDERS: We seem to be in the beginning of a slow takeoff. We should expect things to get very strange for however many years we have left before the singularity. So far the takeoff really is glacially slow (everyone talking about the blindingly fast pace of AI advances is anchored to different alternatives than I am) which just means more time to gawk at stuff. It’s going to be wild."
Any model even just one or two orders of magnitude more powerful than ChatGPT is going to make for a wild future. 10^6x is hard to imagine. And the implications for the philosophy of mind are staggering.
Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#3In this case "powerful" means faster chips. It's not clear that this translates into 1,000,000 smarter given that current AI might end up bottlenecked on availability of text and information to train it on. I guess if you could speed things up by a million-fold though, you could have way bigger context windows and you could potentially set a LLM talking to itself as it explores a problem through web search, writing and running programs, etc. Exciting times.
Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#4This is hyperbolic, of course. But it makes Kurzweil's 2045 prediction of the singularity not as outlandish as it first seemed. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-s...
Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#5Could Ai learn from 3D mapping daytime soap operas and trace character development along the narrative arc? Then it has to function in the real world.
Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#6In this case "powerful" means faster chips. It's not clear that this translates into 1,000,000 smarter given that current AI might end up bottlenecked on availability of text and information to train it on. I guess if you could speed things up by a million-fold though, you could have way bigger context windows and you could potentially set a LLM talking to itself as it explores a problem through web search, writing a…
If I had to make a guess, I would think that text based LLMs will run into that wall sooner than later. But the rapid increase in compute availability wouldn't limit us to text either. Also imagine the models working on image input, sound data, video, temperature, touch, and whatever other inputs you could encode and present to them. This brings it more in line with the human experience of inputs.
Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#7Not saying it could no be true, but that's exactly what a company like Nvidia would say. Do we have any reasonably unbiased info on what the boundaries of the current approach are and when we will reach them?
Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#8Not saying it could no be true, but that's exactly what a company like Nvidia would say. Do we have any reasonably unbiased info on what the boundaries of the current approach are and when we will reach them?
"More powerful" here just means larger (another commenter says faster chips, but you don't even need that if you spend the next ten years training a model, although that could be a more accurate representation of what Nvidia is trying to say, since the alternative is a no-brainer). AI isn't really "smart," and it seems unlikely we're going to get there anytime soon (in other words, the "singularity" is still firmly out of our grasp). What we're seeing today is the fruit of training models with large swaths of data, and the limits of this approach are predictably based on the availability of such data and the resources required to convert them into these gigantic models. Framed in those terms, the "limit" we should be considering ought to be more about utility than how many resources we can afford to throw at models that might ultimately have no use.
Discussions around these topics tend to get dramatized, though. In my opinion we haven't made a lick of qualitative progress in recent years in the "IQ" of AI, but we do get better at utilizing what we have, and making quantitative progress in building ever larger models.
Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#9Not saying it could no be true, but that's exactly what a company like Nvidia would say. Do we have any reasonably unbiased info on what the boundaries of the current approach are and when we will reach them?
"More powerful" here just means larger (another commenter says faster chips, but you don't even need that if you spend the next ten years training a model, although that could be a more accurate representation of what Nvidia is trying to say, since the alternative is a no-brainer). AI isn't really "smart," and it seems unlikely we're going to get there anytime soon (in other words, the "singularity" is still firmly o…
Please lay out your definition of smart?
For the task they are given, take textual tokens as input and make coherent output, the models seem 'smart enough' for me.
The problem here is all the text in the world is still one dimension of information. The emergence of human intelligence, at least I believe, isn't from one dimensional information, but from being able to get feedback and prune the bits of information that are inconsistent with reality. There is no continuous feedback loop in our current LLMs to prune/down weight bad information in that fashion that the mind works in. There is also the "the LLM universe is what humans tell it", if we feed it bad data that's incorrectly weighted, then we'll get bad output. There is currently no scientific method model internal for the AI to test its predictions on reality.
I believe all the above issues are solvable, but no idea on the time and resources necessary to accomplish them.
Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years
#10This is hyperbolic, of course. But it makes Kurzweil's 2045 prediction of the singularity not as outlandish as it first seemed. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-s...
Still outlandish. Not especially well defended either.