US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
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Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#2>Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment.
Thank christ. Please bring on a housing crash ASAP.
Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#3The EU has a similar committee to the NBER, which identifies EU business cycles. They also do not use the colloquial "2 quarters of decline in GDP" definition, though at least 2 quarters of decline is often seen in those recessions that they do identify. [0]
>Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only indicator used. As an example, the Committee has identified the period from the first quarter in 1980 to the third quarter in 1982 as a recession, even though real GDP was growing in some quarters during that episode and that real GDP was higher at the end of the recession than at the beginning. As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for 2001 or 2003, even though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity (though not for two quarters). Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.
Those claiming a US media conspiracy to redefine the term "recession" have a political axe to grind, and nothing more. The NBER identifies recessions in the US, they have done it for a long time, and they will continue to do so.
Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#4>Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment. Thank christ. Please bring on a housing crash ASAP.
Housing investment would be 'housing starts' as in new houses being built. I doubt that prices will be going down if there are more people and the same number of houses. Part of the market for existing houses is sensitive to mortgages. All this means is housing will actually cost more in the future on a total cost of ownership basis. If you're a renter with a ton of cash, this is good, but for literally all other stakeholders in the market is it ultimately not good.
Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#5>Housing investment, though, plunged at a 26% annual pace, hammered by surging mortgage rates as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises borrowing costs to combat chronic inflation. It was the sixth straight quarterly drop in residential investment. Thank christ. Please bring on a housing crash ASAP.
We took a hard look at the economy before buying our house. Ultimately, we bought when interest rates were high, but prices had not yet come down.
There's no crystal ball, but it sure looks like our investment will go down in value in the next few years, perhaps precipitously.
I think of it this way: We bought the house we want for the price we can afford, and will happily enjoy it for two decades without price inflation, even though our salaries will likely go up. So, it's a win, even though we bought at what looks like peak market.
Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#6This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wish a recession into existence, and I can't figure out why other than maybe they think it would allow them to reestablish power in the labor market.
Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#7The EU has a similar committee to the NBER, which identifies EU business cycles. They also do not use the colloquial "2 quarters of decline in GDP" definition, though at least 2 quarters of decline is often seen in those recessions that they do identify. [0] >Most of the recessions identified by the Committee’s procedures consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but declining real GDP is not the only in…
It’s shocking to me how many people in America are hoping for the national economy to do poorly so that their party could win the next election. This isn’t just limited to one tribe.
The same doesn’t exist in Europe AFAICT. I don’t believe anybody is hoping that Putin would shut down the gas pipes for good so that their favorite politician could win an election next year.
Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#8Does inflation factor into this number?
Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#9This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
The fed said interest rates will keep being raised until unemployment rises.
Re: US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
#10This is the weirdest "recession" I can remember. Business leaders are constantly talking about how challenging the economic environment is and the need for layoffs etc. Meanwhile most of the underlying indicators are actually positive. Growth is strong, employment is strong. Anecdotally we're still having trouble finding good candidates. It's almost like there is a class of business leaders who are just trying to wis…
A lot are just focused on the next earnings call which makes sense I guess. If they work to deal with this "emergency" and it doesn't happen idk if there's a big price to pay.