If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
99d.substack.com
If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
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Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#2For those who (like me) didn't get the reference, the "Ship of Theseus" is a thought problem about whether, if every part of the ship has individually been replaced, it remains the Ship of Theseus.
Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#3What about the classic story of the AirBnB founders pivoting from selling cereal?
It seems like the metric for whether you decide to pivot or shut down depends on how many rounds you've done and how many employees you have.
Early on, couple of founders & handful of employees: maybe do whatever pivots you can to survive.
If you're a big boat and pivoting will require firing 80% your staff and starting an entirely different product, maybe consider just shutting down.
(If you've got solid revenue but are just unprofitable, none of this probably applies, you should try whatever you can to save the revenue stream)
Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#4My first startup went through 2 majors pivots and eventually did quite well. The most valuable bit though was the experience. Second startup is in great shape thanks to that experience.
I think many founders give up too early. You wont learn if you don't go through some difficult experiences.
Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#5[deleted]
Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#6My first startup went through 2 majors pivots and eventually did quite well. The most valuable bit though was the experience. Second startup is in great shape thanks to that experience. I think many founders give up too early. You wont learn if you don't go through some difficult experiences.
The pivot can be key - especially if you've built a team that can execute, identifying early that your plan won't work and pivoting to something else can help. And in the worst case, you've learned more.
Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#7On the other hand, Microsoft was just a BASIC vendor, Amazon was a bookseller, Netflix was mail oder DVD company.
Sometimes if you have a really good team/organization it makes sense to pivot based on the market.
Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#8For those who (like me) didn't get the reference, the "Ship of Theseus" is a thought problem about whether, if every part of the ship has individually been replaced, it remains the Ship of Theseus. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus
Is the ship of Theseus a single thought problem, or is it a different thought problem than when it was first thunk since all the present thinkers are different?
Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#9This is the model of Noubar Afeyan’s Flagship Pioneering: place tons of little bets, give them enough money to falsify the hypothesis. Don’t even name the company yet. It’s just an experiment. If it won’t work, kill it and move to the next one. If it does work, call it Moderna and sell a billion mRNA COVID vaccines.
Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down
#10My first startup went through 2 majors pivots and eventually did quite well. The most valuable bit though was the experience. Second startup is in great shape thanks to that experience. I think many founders give up too early. You wont learn if you don't go through some difficult experiences.
Keep in mind survivorship bias though. There are probably loads who pivot multiple times yet still end in failure.