Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
1–10 of 419 posts
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#2* Community prediction..
This is basically a survey.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#3The Taliban took 2 weeks to take over Afghanistan with little resistance in comparison.
Both Ukraine and Afghanistan have similar land in sqm and population sizes.
Why does anyone expect Ukraine to be taken over in a few weeks when there is bound to be more resistance? You would think atleast double or treble that time.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#4how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia!
Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completely surrounded.
There is heavy propaganda and disinformation from both Russia and Ukraine but what we've done in the West is effectively ban impartiality. Never before have we seen this level of zealous emotions since WW2.
@JominiW on twitter does a very good explanation of various political and military objectives and the strategic movement of the Russian forces and he's repeatedly called out the dangers of believing the enemy is a paper tiger.
We've seen all sorts of incompetence from the Russian side and Ukrainian forces have done a good job of defending Kyiv but we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions.
This is called target fixation and it's going to shock a lot of people who only follows one side. Best thing to do in an unpredictable and volatile situation is to not fixate on one view.
We will shortly know in the coming weeks what will happen, if Putin makes significant grounds, he has more chips to gamble/make demands. If Putin fails here, he has no choice to escalate in ways that was previously thought unimaginable.
It doesn't help that US/NATO alliance is adamant on not escalating to WW3 yet they sanction every Russian, despite their objections to war and Putin, in some extremely liberal naivete that the Russians will rise up against an authoritarian government who is ready to use small scale nukes if need be.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#5how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…
yeah fog of war makes understanding the situation as a 3rd party cumbersome. I've essentially given up and just going to wait and see what falls out.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#6The Taliban took 2 weeks to take over Afghanistan with little resistance in comparison. Both Ukraine and Afghanistan have similar land in sqm and population sizes. Why does anyone expect Ukraine to be taken over in a few weeks when there is bound to be more resistance? You would think atleast double or treble that time.
lack of natural barriers, the Ukraine, Belarus lands are flat which means very little places to hide for the insurgency.
in Afghanistan the Taliban could hide out in network of caves and there is just no flatten mountains, the Vietcongs could utilize underground networks and dense forests to operate.
One hope for Ukraine is urban warfare, Putin launched two miserable wars against Chechnya and they were decimated from insurgents hiding out in various apartment buildings, it is likely what is stalling the advance in Kyiv.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#7The Taliban took 2 weeks to take over Afghanistan with little resistance in comparison. Both Ukraine and Afghanistan have similar land in sqm and population sizes. Why does anyone expect Ukraine to be taken over in a few weeks when there is bound to be more resistance? You would think atleast double or treble that time.
lack of natural barriers, the Ukraine, Belarus lands are flat which means very little places to hide for the insurgency. in Afghanistan the Taliban could hide out in network of caves and there is just no flatten mountains, the Vietcongs could utilize underground networks and dense forests to operate. One hope for Ukraine is urban warfare, Putin launched two miserable wars against Chechnya and they were decimated from…
Yes. The terrain for Ukranian insurgents will simply be civilians. How can you tell who is going to shoot you in the back when you turn around?
Unfortunately, we live in a new age and China has perfected facial recognition software, which they will probably have no scruples about providing to Russia. I'm not sure a crowd provides the same kind of anonymity that it once did.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#8how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…
> we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions
Except we haven’t forgotten, news orgs are reporting on things happening outside of Kyiv. Russia seems to have really overplayed their hand because they were barely able to take Kherson after like a week, and can’t even take bigger cities like Kharkiv, even with intense shelling.
Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#9* Community prediction.. This is basically a survey.
Not so basic.
Survey with the predictors (humans) being ranked in their impact on the conclusion based on their historical prediction success.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#10The Taliban took 2 weeks to take over Afghanistan with little resistance in comparison. Both Ukraine and Afghanistan have similar land in sqm and population sizes. Why does anyone expect Ukraine to be taken over in a few weeks when there is bound to be more resistance? You would think atleast double or treble that time.
Ukrainians accepting their new Russian overlords, is another reason to think the invasion will succeed quicker.