Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

Very curious to see what happens with the US housing / real estate market. I think stocks / equities are going to see a severe down turn this year and a good deal of money is going to leave the market. At the same time inflation is very high so sitting in cash is a loser as well albeit not as bad as riding the markets down. Will that money from the stock market go into real estate or will real estate crash too as the fed raises rates? Will remote work continue and in doing so will it reduce pricing on commercial business offices? Will business offices convert to condos? I have no idea but interested to hear any theories.

The fun bit is that everything is 'overvalued' now - stock market, real estate, even crazy things (many parts of crypto such as NFTs, but also Pokemon cards and other collectables) are through the roof, where will all this money go? money out of a bubble has to go somewhere...

How far are we from the boomer generation leaving the market (one way or another)? This will create a lot of oversupply and negative pressure on prices I would assume - who will buy all their houses in the country, their share in the stock market? The answer to that is that we've been doing that already in the past decade with all the money printing / inflation / devaluation of wealth... not sure where the train stops and who will be left holding the bags.

I object to the characterization of Ireland's housing issues as somehow accidental, or solely due to broad market forces.

At every major decision point there were intelligent people screaming in the ear of media and politicians that property developers were getting away with murder.

I knew teenagers who emigrated as the writing was so clearly on the wall, and the entire time our print and TV media were inflating the bubble with every tool at their disposal.

Trails of brown envelopes (bribes) have been sniffed out repeatedly, and then left to grow cold. Large scale developments were made and begun without any plan whatsoever to connect them to basic and necessary infrastructure such as sewage, or schools.

The media have pointed fingers at immigrants, dole scroungers, and market forces - anything but policy. They give airtime to politicians who have been repeatedly proven to be actively working against us and caught in lies over and over. They smear anyone speaking truth.

And when it all went tits up the same fuckers - property developers and politicians and media - made even more money. For example, with NAMA, which this author inexplicably ignores completely.

Irish housing policy for the last decade has been to sell property to vulture funds and foreign investors at firesale prices tax free, while the average Irish worker has none of the same advantages and no chance of getting on the ladder whatsoever.

Our Minister of State for Housing recently tried to get his monkeys to find flaws in an ESRI report saying we could borrow billions for social housing. Our Minister for Housing has come through with just 5% of his promised build number. THIS IS POLICY.

Our government funds landlords with schemes such as HAP (1.5 billion euro directly to landlords since 2017) instead of building fucking houses. They then use those schemes to twist the numbers, pissing in our face and telling us its raining despite clear record homelessness and child poverty.

We give foreign companies billions to build houses which we then rent off of them for decades and don't own at the end. It's sheer, clear insanity. And this Oxford chap seems completely unaware, yet wholly confident in his "understanding" of the issues we have.

This crisis was NOT built on misunderstandings, or myth, or innocent mistakes and apathy. It was CONSTRUCTED. And at every point, the wrong people have profited at the expense of the 40% of Irish who don't own a house.

And if I'm not wrong, neoliberals and banks are running this scam all over the world.

Anyone buying in between now and the future is holding the bag as value terminally declines. These are structural demographic issues combined with technology deflationary pressures, leading to heat death of asset baskets supported by declining productivity of aging populations. See Japan for a preview.

The juice was squeezed over the last 40-50 years, and those times aren’t happening again [1].

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2013/05/Updated-World-Pop...

Let's see.

Prosperity, low-interest rates, wider mortgage product offerings, and easy to access credit cause pricing bubbles.

Now, forces that make a housing bubble pop include a downturn in the economy, a rise in interest rates, as well as a drop in demand.

We've had all that and credit is getting more expensive.

Theres only so many people who can live somewhere or buy to rent scheme spaces, developers building as much and fast they can and you can't renew all the older buildings.

In the end, follow the money, all the stake holders and you'll find it is always universal greed at the root.

I am not so sure that building houses for non business purposes should be handled so liberally.