The economics of pumpkin patches

#1

Post by Anon84 » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 12:03 PM UTC

The economics of pumpkin patches
thehustle.co

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#2

Post by paulcole » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:01 PM UTC

I like how the article takes a hard turn from statistics:

> Americans are expected to spend a record $10B+ on Halloween items in 2021, up from $8B last year — and pumpkins are a big player: Among the 65% of Americans celebrating Halloween this year, 44% (~94m people) plan to carve one.

Straight to vague generalities:

> While pumpkins can readily be found at most grocery stores, many folks turn to a patch to procure their autumnal canvas.

It's like the person writing the article went in wanting to write about pumpkin patches but pumpkin patches aren't as common as they hoped so they plowed ahead anyway.

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#3

Post by monkeydust » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:17 PM UTC

I went to a patch with the kids over the weekend here in UK. It was fun but when it got time to pay we joined a long queue with others having our pumpkins in a wheel barrow.

When we got to the front we had to match our pumpkins to a template based on size (cost from 50p to £10) and then a cashier would tally up the total.

I got chatting to the owner whilst waiting and he was open to a more tech smarter way to pay to avoid the queues.

Anyone have ideas on how to do this, ideally using existing tech mashed together in a low/no code way?

So flow would be ...

- Move your barrow under a camera.

- It would take a picture and through image recognition identify and classify pumpkins based on size.

- This would be pushed to cashier with total.

- Maybe where confidence level on classification was low it would prompt human intervention.

To me weighing the barrow would be another, perhaps better, solution but the farmer wasnt keen on this and ran out of time to dig deeper!

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#4

Post by david38 » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:19 PM UTC

monkeydust wrote: post #3

I went to a patch with the kids over the weekend here in UK. It was fun but when it got time to pay we joined a long queue with others having our pumpkins in a wheel barrow. When we got to the front we had to match our pumpkins to a template based on size (cost from 50p to £10) and then a cashier would tally up the total. I got chatting to the owner whilst waiting and he was open to a more tech smarter way to pay to…

Weight is the simplest by far. 50,

Otherwise, build a box, and the smallest box that fit the pumpkin determines its size.

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#5

Post by guerrilla » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:27 PM UTC

paulcole wrote: post #2

I like how the article takes a hard turn from statistics: > Americans are expected to spend a record $10B+ on Halloween items in 2021, up from $8B last year — and pumpkins are a big player: Among the 65% of Americans celebrating Halloween this year, 44% (~94m people) plan to carve one. Straight to vague generalities: > While pumpkins can readily be found at most grocery stores, many folks turn to a patch to procure t…

Or the person just wanted to write about pumpkin patches, did that, and getting statistics on them was impossible considering how informal they are.

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#6

Post by odyssey7 » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:29 PM UTC

david38 wrote: post #4

monkeydust wrote: post #3

I went to a patch with the kids over the weekend here in UK. It was fun but when it got time to pay we joined a long queue with others having our pumpkins in a wheel barrow. When we got to the front we had to match our pumpkins to a template based on size (cost from 50p to £10) and then a cashier would tally up the total. I got chatting to the owner whilst waiting and he was open to a more tech smarter way to pay to…

Weight is the simplest by far. 50, Otherwise, build a box, and the smallest box that fit the pumpkin determines its size.

I wonder if they run into issues selling by weight. Customers are usually paying more for the visual size, not however much water a particular item has in it.

Does the weight increase linearly with size? If it’s especially hollow, probably not, while an especially large and hollow pumpkin may be uncommon and should be sold for a high price.

Edit: I guess a better question would be, can you predict desirable carving qualities and visual size accurately as a function of pumpkin weight?

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#7

Post by jjmellon » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:37 PM UTC

The article's profit calculations assume that every pumpkin grown can be sold. If you take a drive in the countryside today (last day of sale before Hallowe'en), you'll see this is not the case. Huge piles of pumpkins still at the farm stores, and fields full of unharvested pumpkins. I believe the likely explanation for pumpkin patch economics is that pumpkins serve as a loss leader to attract customers to a farm store.

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#8

Post by tomrod » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:39 PM UTC

monkeydust wrote: post #3

I went to a patch with the kids over the weekend here in UK. It was fun but when it got time to pay we joined a long queue with others having our pumpkins in a wheel barrow. When we got to the front we had to match our pumpkins to a template based on size (cost from 50p to £10) and then a cashier would tally up the total. I got chatting to the owner whilst waiting and he was open to a more tech smarter way to pay to…

Here is my thought process:

> - Move your barrow under a camera.

Minimum $5k, closer to $25k, to set physical hardware, network, queueing line and instructions

> - It would take a picture and through image recognition identify and classify pumpkins based on size.

$100k+ capex to get implemented model on hardware, sufficient training samples + training expertise, QA, etc. Ongoing opex for maintenance (sun, weather), model maintenance, and cloud infra / use

> - This would be pushed to cashier with total.

Customers would argue with cashier, much like self-checkout lines at big box stores.

> - Maybe where confidence level on classification was low it would prompt human intervention.

Confidence could be high on false positives/negatives.

-----------------------------

Overall, I like the idea of AI-assistive technology implementations. Are we to the point where it won't wreck the economics of a small operation?

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#9

Post by pumpkinman » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:41 PM UTC

monkeydust wrote: post #3

I went to a patch with the kids over the weekend here in UK. It was fun but when it got time to pay we joined a long queue with others having our pumpkins in a wheel barrow. When we got to the front we had to match our pumpkins to a template based on size (cost from 50p to £10) and then a cashier would tally up the total. I got chatting to the owner whilst waiting and he was open to a more tech smarter way to pay to…

Okay. You fund it, I'll build it.

Re: The economics of pumpkin patches

#10

Post by germinalphrase » Sun, Oct 31, 2021, 2:42 PM UTC

odyssey7 wrote: post #6

david38 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weight is the simplest by far. 50, Otherwise, build a box, and the smallest box that fit the pumpkin determines its size.

I wonder if they run into issues selling by weight. Customers are usually paying more for the visual size, not however much water a particular item has in it. Does the weight increase linearly with size? If it’s especially hollow, probably not, while an especially large and hollow pumpkin may be uncommon and should be sold for a high price. Edit: I guess a better question would be, can you predict desirable carving q…

FWIW: Selling by weight seems to be common (and quick) in Minnesota.