The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
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Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#2Ben Bernanke has studied and written [0] extensively about this topic; a copy of a speech he delivered at Washington and Lee University in 2004 can be found at [1] for those interested.
0: https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11482/c11482.pdf
Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#3I have an hypothesis that the same could happen with deflationary cryptocurrencies if they become used widely enough in financial institutions that central banks decide they should tie part of the monetary system to them.
Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#4We are pre-great depression in many respects. Debt levels being at very high percentages. Income inequality out of control. Inflation out of control.
Fundamentally as well it's the baby boomer's fault. Right before the great depression was when the boomers of the american civil war were retiring.
The 1980s inflation and crashes were WW1 boomers and now is the WW2 baby boomers retiring.
History repeats.
Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#5I have an hypothesis that the same could happen with deflationary cryptocurrencies if they become used widely enough in financial institutions that central banks decide they should tie part of the monetary system to them. https://benoitessiambre.com/specter.html
I don’t think you’re the only one with this hypothesis. There’s a couple bag holders I know who share that view. It’s a confusing one, IMO, but it’s interesting to think about.
Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#6We are pre-great depression in many respects. Debt levels being at very high percentages. Income inequality out of control. Inflation out of control. Fundamentally as well it's the baby boomer's fault. Right before the great depression was when the boomers of the american civil war were retiring. The 1980s inflation and crashes were WW1 boomers and now is the WW2 baby boomers retiring. History repeats.
Not to say it can't happen, but there are quite a few new institutional and regulatory safeguards that (in spite of the attempts by some to neuter them) exist now that did not exist pre- and during the great depression that make such a thing happening again, or to the extent that it did, quite hard.
The more interesting question is whether there is the political will, let alone ability, to accurately and quickly respond to events as they are happening, rather than with extreme delay. Covid-19 (granted as much a public health crisis as an economic one) showed that American domestic problem solving has grown rather fragile and inflexible.
Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#7We are pre-great depression in many respects. Debt levels being at very high percentages. Income inequality out of control. Inflation out of control. Fundamentally as well it's the baby boomer's fault. Right before the great depression was when the boomers of the american civil war were retiring. The 1980s inflation and crashes were WW1 boomers and now is the WW2 baby boomers retiring. History repeats.
The United States at least is actively in a great depression. It's just being papered over with currency debasement so rich people don't notice.
But if you actually visit parts of this country that are outside of the wealthy, coastal bubbles, you'll see first hand the real world devastation that's happening to people. It's why there's a major opioid epidemic in the Midwest. It's why homelessness is exploding. It's why rampant, degenerate speculation in stocks and crypto is going crazy and rife with scams and conmen selling hope to the hopeless. It's why populists like Trump and Sanders have so much political energy behind them.
And all of this is pre pandemic. I'm sure the past two years have added a new level of devastation.
People are depressed and dying everywhere, but us winners in our gilded bubbles have the privilege of being able to look away and continue living in our illusory, drunken stupor.
Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#8I have an hypothesis that the same could happen with deflationary cryptocurrencies if they become used widely enough in financial institutions that central banks decide they should tie part of the monetary system to them. https://benoitessiambre.com/specter.html
100% Agree. From everything I've read, our being able to print money is an indispensable tool during financial crises. Fixing the great depression and the great recession depended on this ability.
If the world transitions to cryptocurrencies whose supply is unmanaged or fixed, that will not be possible and presumably will be stuck during financial crises.
Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#9I have an hypothesis that the same could happen with deflationary cryptocurrencies if they become used widely enough in financial institutions that central banks decide they should tie part of the monetary system to them. https://benoitessiambre.com/specter.html
100% Agree. From everything I've read, our being able to print money is an indispensable tool during financial crises. Fixing the great depression and the great recession depended on this ability. If the world transitions to cryptocurrencies whose supply is unmanaged or fixed, that will not be possible and presumably will be stuck during financial crises.
> From everything I've read, our being able to print money is an indispensable tool during financial crises.
You might want to add to your reading list the history of the Roman empire.
Re: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression (1997)
#10We are pre-great depression in many respects. Debt levels being at very high percentages. Income inequality out of control. Inflation out of control. Fundamentally as well it's the baby boomer's fault. Right before the great depression was when the boomers of the american civil war were retiring. The 1980s inflation and crashes were WW1 boomers and now is the WW2 baby boomers retiring. History repeats.
The United States at least is actively in a great depression. It's just being papered over with currency debasement so rich people don't notice. But if you actually visit parts of this country that are outside of the wealthy, coastal bubbles, you'll see first hand the real world devastation that's happening to people. It's why there's a major opioid epidemic in the Midwest. It's why homelessness is exploding. It's wh…
If there's a great depression and few people are noticing, then it isn't that great. The great ones aren't subtle. I live in the rural southwest. Business isn't booming here. But it isn't that bad either, yet. Maybe we're in the "so far so good" phase, but there's a big difference between the fall and arriving at the pavement.