12 Predictions for the Future of Music
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12 Predictions for the Future of Music
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Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#2In other words music is evolving into a zombie crab.
Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#3Somewhat related with #3, but I think music will become more of utilitarian, perhaps incidental instruments where it is combined with other media. That could be music intended for video, movie, etc.
This trends has been observed in some places, like in Japan, where pretty much most if not all of the top music are pretty much tie-ins. (Although, it could be that people know artist already, but I do start to see the case where it's other way around.)
Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#4Is that 30% cut from Apple/Spotify/Google really that big compared to what record stores, factories and whatnot that was involved in physical CD sales, took?
Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#5Is that 30% cut from Apple/Spotify/Google really that big compared to what record stores, factories and whatnot that was involved in physical CD sales, took?
In music (as opposed to apps), it’s not about a 30% cut, and more about a $10 _cap_ on monthly music spend by consumers. That $5-10 needs to be split across all the artists on the streaming platform in proportion to their streams. And consumers are listening to far more music these days.
A lot of people hear this and say: “well, I never spent $10/mo on CDs”. Sure, but some people used to spend $100s/mo, and now they don’t need to. I’d bet that music superfans/whales were once a very important revenue stream, just as they are for alcohol, sports teams and mobile games (likely less extreme than games though).
Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#6Is that 30% cut from Apple/Spotify/Google really that big compared to what record stores, factories and whatnot that was involved in physical CD sales, took?
In music (as opposed to apps), it’s not about a 30% cut, and more about a $10 _cap_ on monthly music spend by consumers. That $5-10 needs to be split across all the artists on the streaming platform in proportion to their streams. And consumers are listening to far more music these days. A lot of people hear this and say: “well, I never spent $10/mo on CDs”. Sure, but some people used to spend $100s/mo, and now they…
We are never going back to the old system, where we needed to buy each track/album we wanted to listen to.
Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#7Is it possible to quantify these changes in some way?
People say musicians always made a pittance, has that substantially changed in the past 20 years?
Labels seem to be buying up old catalogs, so there's some truth in that.
His point about platforms not being effective in breaking new artists seems right though. I remember an article where Grizzly Bear was quoted as saying that without Radio play, you seem to hit a ceiling in terms of building a large, permanent fanbase.
My personal suspicion is that without repeated exposure to new music, done semi-forcefully through radio, it becomes much much harder and expensive to break new artists.
Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#8> A peculiar phenomenon will emerge—listeners will have favorite new songs, but not know (or care) about the name of the artist.
I imagine this has already happened. There is no mystique with artists and bands anymore, as they're all posting their daily minutiae online like everyone else.
Streaming networks' emphasis on playlists in effect created a bottomless pit of fragmented content, much like what FB and IG do with algorithmic feeds. Songs are heard in isolation, jammed in between two similar-sounding songs that come before and after. It's hard to care about an artist when they're one small thumbnail amid a sea of other thumbnails queued up to play next.
It has led to a situation where artists make music that's playlist-friendly, because that's where they have a chance of being heard.
The same way in which people write words on the Internet to match what users type into search engines.
Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#9Perhaps a bit misleading title since the predictions were mainly (with a few exceptions) about the future of music industry instead of music itself.
It is an interesting question how much music itself can advance while still staying enjoyable by a significant number of people. For instance much of the popular music nowadays appears to be rather simplistic in terms of rhythms and harmony, and the innovation has been happening more on the timbre.
In classical music more modern approaches such as atonality never seemed to gather such large scale interest as the stuff from older masters. Time will show if e.g. microtonal music will make a breakthrough at some point, but it is hard since the new harmonies sound just 'wrong' until the listener learns them. (Of course for some native listeners the same could presumably be said about western music.)
I guess it's not a completely unreasonable guess to say that there are some optimal thresholds of complexity for a human brain and that's why simple regular clapping and singing in thirds and fifths will continue to evoke the strongest emotions for the majority of people.
Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music
#10> A peculiar phenomenon will emerge—listeners will have favorite new songs, but not know (or care) about the name of the artist. I imagine this has already happened. There is no mystique with artists and bands anymore, as they're all posting their daily minutiae online like everyone else. Streaming networks' emphasis on playlists in effect created a bottomless pit of fragmented content, much like what FB and IG do wi…
But if that were true, live music revenues would be down, since people wouldn't care much about who is performing.