Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
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Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#2> “You can’t be short it in scale,” agrees the short seller. Like some of the others who fundamentally dislike it, he even has a small position in bitcoin. “If it goes up, I’ll make a little bit of money. If it goes to zero, I’ll be so happy, I will gladly lose the money.”
The attitude that pervades HN in regards to crypto. This website is not a good place for discussion regarding blockchain technologies.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#3Crypto has never gone through a major economic crisis and when there were short term panics it always dropped significantly. Being without a central bank also means there is no limit to how far it can drop.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#4Michael burry is correct. The others (e.g talib, paulsen)... Are just hot gas. What distinguishes a bubble from a mania is the high degree of leverage underlying the price support. To date none of the Bitcoin price peaks in the past Exhibited the hallmark sign of a bubble popping, which is 2x faster price drop relative to rate of climb, if anything most of them were 2x slower.
However, if you look at the motion that has been happening recently, the declines have initially manifested as 2x faster, both in the most recent Bitcoin correction but especially in the "altcoin" prices, indicating leverage-covering behavior. This tracks with the increasing participation of trad finance (aka indirect leverage-backed prices) and the increasing availability of secondary products (options, shorts) which are also leveraged positions.
Fwiw, in all past Bitcoin price rises I have consistently said "it's not a bubble" -- you can search hn if curious. This time it's different.
Good luck out there folks.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#5Is it really a bubble or is it driven by market demands as more and more applications and use-cases emerge?
In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync.
China's real estate market is a bubble because there is a excess of 500 million dwellings that are not needed.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#6> “You can’t be short it in scale,” agrees the short seller. Like some of the others who fundamentally dislike it, he even has a small position in bitcoin. “If it goes up, I’ll make a little bit of money. If it goes to zero, I’ll be so happy, I will gladly lose the money.” The attitude that pervades HN in regards to crypto. This website is not a good place for discussion regarding blockchain technologies.
I don't think that's an accurate read at all.
HN appears to me more full of people (like me) who were fired up by the initial promise of (a) blockchain technology (b) intermediary- and free-free transfer of value.
What happened instead was that the technology turned out to be one of the worst threats to global warming since farting cows (yes,yes, i know, ethereum makes it all better), the intermediary- and fee-free part never actually worked out at all (because people need accounts somewhere, sorry, wallets), and finally, bitcoin and others turned into a speculating collectors' frenzy that while technically, perhaps, not as absurd as beanie babies or dutch bulbs, is generally adjacent to such historical fancies.
Given the energy problems (yes, yes, i know ethereum makes it all better), the attitude towards blockchain itself remains remarkably positive. But the quoted position above isn't about blockchain, it's about bitcoin, and you're distorting facts and also "the HN attitude" (which doesn't really exist) by attempting to conflate the two.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#7Crypto has never gone through a major economic crisis and when there were short term panics it always dropped significantly. Being without a central bank also means there is no limit to how far it can drop.
To be fair, as regularly seen in smaller economies - regular money also tends to show no limit to how far it can drop during economic crisis.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#8Is it really a bubble or is it driven by market demands as more and more applications and use-cases emerge? In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. China's real estate market is a bubble because there is a excess of 500 million dwellings that are not needed.
> In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync.
Does it, though? I’m on the sidelines, but it seems like all the excitement/money flowing into crypto these days is into blockchains with higher transaction throughput and more advanced smart contract interpreters. I know there are some maxis trying to build things like DeFi and NFTs on Bitcoin but it seems to have really taken a backseat in the latest crypto hype cycle.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#9Tether is a fraud and everyone knows it. More than half of all crypto trades involve tether so the fraud is pervasive.
But the most damning aspect of all is the fact that despite common knowledge of the pervasive fraud, USDT maintains it's peg.
This indicates collusion by the market making exchanges in perpetrating this widespread, pervasive fraud. This essentially makes the entire crypto marketplace as we know it one big huge fraud.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#10Is it really a bubble or is it driven by market demands as more and more applications and use-cases emerge? In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. China's real estate market is a bubble because there is a excess of 500 million dwellings that are not needed.
Almost none of the blockchain infrastructure of other crypto projects relies on Bitcoin directly beyond it being an investment in the same general sector.