China’s dodgy-debt double act
economist.com
China’s dodgy-debt double act
1–10 of 59 posts
Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#2Wondering if this and the everglade situation could be the undoing of tether. Tho Tether seems to be completely disconnected from any sort of reality.
Tether is speculated to be backed by a lot of Everglade ‘commercial paper’ debt.
Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#3Is there any way to short evergrande, buy puts, etc.? I didn't find them listed in my brokerage.
Is smart money already doing so?
Any other dominos that will fall because of this, and similar plays to take advantage of them?
Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#4Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#5Wondering if this and the everglade situation could be the undoing of tether. Tho Tether seems to be completely disconnected from any sort of reality. Tether is speculated to be backed by a lot of Everglade ‘commercial paper’ debt. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27959852
It is unrelated. If Tether is to unravel it will happen as the broad cryptocurrency market falls and the outflows into USD becomes larger than the inflow into cryptocurrency (via Tether and other means).
Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#6>Both episodes show that the hierarchy of creditors in China is based on politics and the priorities of the state
The 2008 financial crisis showed that the same is true of Western nations. US and European central banks absorbed trillions in bad debt, and a few banks that officials didn't like walked the plank while the majority came out ahead in the end. The same dynamic is of course 'bold decisive action' when free market capitalists do it, and 'dodgy' when "communists" are engaging in it, at least in the pages of The Economist.
Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#7Is there any way to short evergrande, buy puts, etc.? I didn't find them listed in my brokerage. Is smart money already doing so? Any other dominos that will fall because of this, and similar plays to take advantage of them?
You are a bit late in the game. Their bonds are already trading at a 75% discount and the stock is down 80% this year.
As a general rule, you shouldn't trade on news like this, unless you understand really well the risks you are taking.
Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#8Wondering if this and the everglade situation could be the undoing of tether. Tho Tether seems to be completely disconnected from any sort of reality. Tether is speculated to be backed by a lot of Everglade ‘commercial paper’ debt. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27959852
I don't think so. I believe the majority of their commercial paper is in reality IOU to the affiliated exchanges - so money printed from thin air. But I do believe that Tether days are numbered - given the size they reached and the implausibility of the numbers they shared (only beacause they where forced too do so).
Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#9It seems like the Chinese authorities are trying to deleverage by explicit policy (very evident in the stock market), here when the leverage in the western economies is at its highest.
We in the west have a tendency to overestimate China's debt problems by comparing the numbers and ratios to that of the west. Forgetting that 1) China is very big and has a lot of people 2) most people in China are poor and live essentially in a third-world economy that can grow very fast by basic investment in infrastructure such as transportation, housing, energy, education.
Re: China’s dodgy-debt double act
#10Chinese citizen living in US, posting anonymously for obvious reason.
Huarong and evergrande are just the tip of the iceberg. If you wish to know what all the things fester below for CCP, here's a very timely summary video from laowhy86, one of the YouTube expert on China https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpwtZLzDM_o
Unfortunately you will not find many outspoken Chinese native citizen on YouTube, for they all fear CCP retribution, even living abroad.
恒大暴雷 市值两万亿的中国第一房企 居然对付不出400亿 如同一个万元户 被400块给逼死了 房企都要塌了 房价还没跌 建筑商的商票拖欠 银行的债务拖欠 私人借贷也拖欠 房子卖出去还收的是全款 不知道这些钱都到哪去了 魔幻的时代 魔幻的故事啊