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Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities

arstechnica.com

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Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities

#3
post #2

none of these are self-driving. They are just driver assist feature rebranded and marketed well. Tesla can't even get their cars to drive in an empty tunnel

How is Waymo's driverless taxi service not self driving? When they come to pick you up there is no-one in the car at all, and when you are collected you are a passenger in the back not a driver.

It's limited to a single suburb, but it's definitely full self driving (unlike a lot of other offerings).

Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities

#4
Possibility 9 — nobody does, because there is no such thing as self-driving.

The whole name "self-driving" is invented to pull the wool on public's eyes, and is a misnomer.

It's fundamentally clear to anybody moderately technically literate that what "self-driving" companies can't be called "driving," yet there are way more studied, and credited people than us here working in these companies who know that, and stay silent.

Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities

#5
post #2

none of these are self-driving. They are just driver assist feature rebranded and marketed well. Tesla can't even get their cars to drive in an empty tunnel

Waymo taxis self-drive. Many of them have no support driver any more.

Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities

#6
"A decade from now, we'll be able to look back and say which companies or approaches were on the right track. For now, we can only guess."

My first thought was that a decade from now there will be a very limited number of self driving cars on the road, still. Mostly because people (not all people, but most people) will be very scared of the technology, no matter how good it is. Every time there's an accident it'll make news. Any deaths will make the news. It will not matter if statistically self-driving vehicles are safer.

I do wonder, can it ever be as good as or better than a person? Won't they always hesitate more, be slower than, and take more time than a real person driving? If it costs a little less to take a self-driving taxi than a person-driving taxi, why would anyone bother? What's the motivation for people to go with a self-driven thing over a person driven thing? Will there really be a big price difference?

Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities

#7
post #4

Possibility 9 — nobody does, because there is no such thing as self-driving. The whole name "self-driving" is invented to pull the wool on public's eyes, and is a misnomer. It's fundamentally clear to anybody moderately technically literate that what "self-driving" companies can't be called "driving," yet there are way more studied, and credited people than us here working in these companies who know that, and stay s…

Self-driving, as in there's no one driving the car, it drives itself. No human labor proportional to miles driven. How is that a misnomer?

Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities

#9
Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words.

Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale. It's a platform.

Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars.

I see right around 0% chance for Cruze and others. They'll never figure it out. Chinese companies might though.

I think we'll see Tesla, some emerging Chinese automaker contenders, lots of current brands with smart features, and technology like Comma.ai. The future isn't just "does a car have AI?", it's the combination of the hardware of the car, battery management, routing, and platform.

Still curious about what Apple intends to do here.

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