Designing better batteries for electric vehicles

Iterating on battery design is important but it's important to realize that existing batteries are already pretty good. More than good enough to be cost competitive with ICE vehicles over the life time of the vehicle in most classes of road transport (e-bikes to heavy trucks) and trending towards being cost competitive on purchase price as well in the next years and production price soon after (purchase price typically involves tax incentives).

Most of that is just relentless optimization by companies that have gone from small factories to operating multiple so-called Giga factories, i.e. factories producing multiple GWH worth of battery capacity. Tera factories are coming next. Tera factories are essential to be able to actually satisfy demand. Currently any battery that is produced finds its way to a product that probably has some kind of waiting list. Demand is that strong. Driving prices down below 100$/kwh is important for this as most cars don't need more than 50-70 kwh (i.e. 5000-7000$) worth of batteries. Tesla does not disclose their battery cost but they've been rumored to have long broken through that price point. Chinese manufacturers are selling cars below 5000$ in their domestic market already.

Solid state batteries will have to be cost competitive to be able to make a dent in that market. That will likely happen eventually but probably not in the next year. However, demand won't be an issue even at an initial premium price point. There are plenty of markets where it makes sense to pay a premium for a lighter, more efficient, safer battery. Prices will come down as that market matures. But that might take a decade or so.

>rare earth materials

Which?

>But if an electric car ends up being superior in every way - range, handling, cost - of an ICE car, they will compete ICE cars out of the market without subsidies or force.

This is already the case.

Check BMW Series 3 sales (or any entry luxury sedan) against the Tesla Model 3. And how sales of Model Y are growing against comparable ICE midsized SUV. When Tesla release their compact cars (expected around 2023), it is game over. If you don't trust Tesla, see Porsche Taycan sales against their Panamera.

Note, the mass of an anode is at most 15% of mass of the modern battery cell.

All "metallic" lithium cells still need some mechanical structure to hold lithium. So, at most you will get a half of the mass of graphite, given that graphite is already a quite lightweight material.

For the cost, the second most expensive part in the cell after the cathode is the separator. Close to a third of cell's cost can be the separator. Japanese currently have a near monopoly on high-end separators, with Chinese having the rest of the market.

EVs can cover almost all usecases for a large number of people. I think that counts as "pretty good", the main issue seems to be cost and lack of charging infrastructure for people without a garage.

> Iterating on battery design is important but it's important to realize that existing batteries are already pretty good.

Seconding this. The current mainstream will hover at around 200-220 Wh/kg for a long time. It already does.

Cell energy densities above >200 Wh/kg were available for a long time, but even quite major car brands intentionally chose to not to use premium priced cells, and stayed on commodity grade ones.

Cells sold on the open market still have a quite big double digit markup. Only direct sales to EV makers go below $100 per kWh.

And yes, small cars for people only driving in the city make the most of cars sold around the world. Here, your observation is completely correct.

In China, even lead acid battery powered cars find buyers in small towns, and villages.

Dropping 100kg in lead, and structure from small cars with around 10kWh packs will make a big difference.

It's not Tesla whom the big automakers are afraid of, it's Wuling MiniEVs — a car for a city driver which petrol powered cars can't beat at $5000 pricepoint.