Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

My pet theory is that Toyota or Honda will be on life support by the end of next decade, if not dead. They both had a huge head start in batteries with their hybrids (Honda’s first hybrid was released in 1999), and they squandered it. Hopefully the Korean car companies crush them with superior products.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#5

Post by tharne » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 2:44 PM UTC

Articles like this misunderstand both innovation and capitalism. Progress isn't typically made by some unusually smart person or enterprise gazing into the future and creating the perfect thing. It happens by lots of individuals and companies making bets and guesses, most of which are wrong, but some turn out the be right. That way the overall system can be brilliant regardless of whether or not the individual actors are brilliant. Or, more precisely, you can have a brilliant system without brilliant actors.

Articles like this one look back with the benefit of hindsight and are written from the perspective, "Company X missed obvious trend Y and now they're in trouble". In reality, a bunch of companies made guesses about what could work in an unknown and uncertain future and some turned out to be right and others turned out to be wrong.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#6

Post by ramesh31 » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 2:47 PM UTC

I think they bet perfectly fine, if you ignore the silly hydrogen efforts. Toyota has never been a technological front runner. They take the Apple approach; wait for something to be truly ready for prime time, then execute it better than anyone else. EV's are still 2% of the US market. And it will be a decade more until a 60+kwH EV is being sold for <$30k total upfront price out the door, which is where they need to be for mass adoption. That gives them time to keep perfecting the solid state batteries that will be crucial to getting Toyota levels of reliability, safety, and longevity from an EV.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#7

Post by dahfizz » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 2:48 PM UTC

tharne wrote: post #5

Articles like this misunderstand both innovation and capitalism. Progress isn't typically made by some unusually smart person or enterprise gazing into the future and creating the perfect thing. It happens by lots of individuals and companies making bets and guesses, most of which are wrong, but some turn out the be right. That way the overall system can be brilliant regardless of whether or not the individual actors…

The point of the article isn't "Toyota bet wrong on BEVs, haha they are dumb". The point is "Toyota bet wrong on BEVs, and are now lobbying the government to hinder electric vehicles instead of getting on board".

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#8

Post by typon » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 2:48 PM UTC

ashtonkem wrote: post #4

My pet theory is that Toyota or Honda will be on life support by the end of next decade, if not dead. They both had a huge head start in batteries with their hybrids (Honda’s first hybrid was released in 1999), and they squandered it. Hopefully the Korean car companies crush them with superior products.

I've pre-ordered an Ioniq 5. Tesla has a real competitor in Hyundai. If you don't care about the "self-driving" thing, other companies are catching up fast.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#9

Post by emadabdulrahim » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 2:50 PM UTC

tharne wrote: post #5

Articles like this misunderstand both innovation and capitalism. Progress isn't typically made by some unusually smart person or enterprise gazing into the future and creating the perfect thing. It happens by lots of individuals and companies making bets and guesses, most of which are wrong, but some turn out the be right. That way the overall system can be brilliant regardless of whether or not the individual actors…

Why wouldn't companies pay the price for being wrong for far too long? Why don't they suck it up and let the government make decisions that would ease the transition to the future of EV?

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#10

Post by ashtonkem » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 2:51 PM UTC

typon wrote: post #8

ashtonkem wrote: post #4

My pet theory is that Toyota or Honda will be on life support by the end of next decade, if not dead. They both had a huge head start in batteries with their hybrids (Honda’s first hybrid was released in 1999), and they squandered it. Hopefully the Korean car companies crush them with superior products.

I've pre-ordered an Ioniq 5. Tesla has a real competitor in Hyundai. If you don't care about the "self-driving" thing, other companies are catching up fast.

I’ve gone from bullish to bearish on self driving, all I want from that area is radar guided cruise control and highway friendly lane keeping.

Sadly the Ioniq 5 won’t be on sale in my state. I’m considering a model Y because the range is desirable for the semi-regular camping we do.