Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
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Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#2>Thus the semiconductor market in 2021 is a fully baked cake. You can’t just swap some ingredients out in response to a one-off military invasion, and then keep trucking along. No, we’ll have to bake a whole new cake if TSMC goes bye-bye. And that will be painful for everyone, everywhere.
Well, tell that to the economists that praised "competitive advantage" out-sourcing of everything:
"Smith outlines the basic theory behind comparative advantage; that it makes more sense to manufacture a good which you have the necessary expertise and materials to produce than to inefficiently allocate your resources to the production of a good that some other country can produce for less overall cost."
Yeah, until that other country becomes an enemy, or a monopoly, or has you by the balls - or another country snaps it or cozies up with it...
But, yeah, who would have though that would ever happen in the "end of history" era.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#3This is all hypothesis. Everyone can draw any scenario imaginable.
Here the author claims that TSMC and Taiwanese fabs will become "unavailable" in case of an invasion by the mainland. He also makes the claim that Taiwanese would 'disable' those fabs themselves in order "to protect customer IP".
The former is of course a possibility, the latter is rather more strange. Neither are explained.
It seems to me that the mainland would have an interest in protecting those fabs and in resuming "business as usual" as soon as possible, so I would imagine them drawing plans to make that happen in case of a military invasion. Fabs may also be very useful in order to keep any sanctions towards China at a minimum: Would the US want to push for, say, a trade embargo if that meant cutting off semi supply? Maybe but that would make these sanctions very painful for the West and their allies.
On the Taiwanese side, there might be a temptation to sabotage the fabs but IMHO that would be a shot in the foot: If the fabs are gone and the mainland does take control of the island then they would never allow such concentration in Taiwan to happen again so Taiwan would fade forever. And if the invasion fails then there would probably be a massive push to rebuild outside of Taiwan. All in all the destruction of the fabs would probably be used as a bluff/threat to push the US to protect Taiwan as much as possible (although the US would likely never directly attack Chinese forces, and reciprocally).
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#4Near the end of the article, Steve Blanks is quoted...
Alternatively, Beijing may seek to negotiate with or coerce Taipei (or both) in order to allow China sole access to TSMC and block chip exports to the United States, thereby securing China’s own supply while crippling American industry.
But earlier in the article it's mentioned that the US effectively has a "kill switch" on TSMC (by cutting off key supplies needed to fabricate semiconductors). If this is true, then the scenario presented by Blanks seems unlikely -- or am I missing some detail?
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#5The Taiwan saga will be another example of the 5 stages of acceptance. Right now the western world seems to be in denial. Once China does a small incursion into Taiwan, we'll advance to the next stage - anger. Inability to stop China will take us to bargaining. When China ignores the west, we'll get into the depression stage. When CCP's troops start patrolling Taiwan streets, and I think it'll happen in just ten years, we'll reach acceptance. By that time, the US will better have fully functional foundries in Arizona.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#6The Taiwan saga will be another example of the 5 stages of acceptance. Right now the western world seems to be in denial. Once China does a small incursion into Taiwan, we'll advance to the next stage - anger. Inability to stop China will take us to bargaining. When China ignores the west, we'll get into the depression stage. When CCP's troops start patrolling Taiwan streets, and I think it'll happen in just ten year…
I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba.
In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the closer nation is right there.
Note that I am leaving thermonuclear escalation off the table. Nobody really wins that one. I’m imagining a scoped conventional conflict in the form of an intervention.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#7Near the end of the article, Steve Blanks is quoted... Alternatively, Beijing may seek to negotiate with or coerce Taipei (or both) in order to allow China sole access to TSMC and block chip exports to the United States, thereby securing China’s own supply while crippling American industry. But earlier in the article it's mentioned that the US effectively has a "kill switch" on TSMC (by cutting off key supplies neede…
You aren’t missing any detail from what I understand. A core focus of US national security this decade is securing chip fabrication capability that is not endangered by global supply chain disruptions - or making the cost of the disruption unreasonably high to the disruptor.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#8The Taiwan saga will be another example of the 5 stages of acceptance. Right now the western world seems to be in denial. Once China does a small incursion into Taiwan, we'll advance to the next stage - anger. Inability to stop China will take us to bargaining. When China ignores the west, we'll get into the depression stage. When CCP's troops start patrolling Taiwan streets, and I think it'll happen in just ten year…
I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba. In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the clo…
Given some warning the US could actually stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The US Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world just behind the US Air Force. That’s the rather insane scale we’ve invested into the current military.
Cruse missiles are a different story, China could trivially destroy TSMC’s factories. That said, the US is hardly the only nation likely to react to such an invasion.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#9The Taiwan saga will be another example of the 5 stages of acceptance. Right now the western world seems to be in denial. Once China does a small incursion into Taiwan, we'll advance to the next stage - anger. Inability to stop China will take us to bargaining. When China ignores the west, we'll get into the depression stage. When CCP's troops start patrolling Taiwan streets, and I think it'll happen in just ten year…
I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba. In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the clo…
China could easily stop a US invasion of Cuba merely by putting several garrisons of soldiers in Cuba.
They probably could not stop an 'all in invasion' - of course - but that's not the point. The point would be to raise the cost significantly i.e. 'invading Cuba would mean war with China'.
There are a lot of things the US could to do raise the cost of the invasion of Taiwan, but it's hard. Every move comes with a counter move.
The US would have to coordinate with everyone else on this. They're trying to do that but it's hard.
Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba. In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the clo…
Given some warning the US could actually stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The US Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world just behind the US Air Force. That’s the rather insane scale we’ve invested into the current military. Cruse missiles are a different story, China could trivially destroy TSMC’s factories. That said, the US is hardly the only nation likely to react to such an invasion.
I think that the US would not want to directly attack China, and China would not want to directly attack the US. The US would provide weapons, intelligence, etc. but would not fire on the Chinese because that would be an unlimited and uncontrolled escalation, in effect a declaration of war on a country actually larger than them, a nuclear power which government could not afford to be seen as weak and defeated. That's partly why the US have always refrained from entering into any formal obligation to intervene militarily.
Likewise, I don't think it would be in China's interest to destroy TSMC's fabs. Quite the opposite, I think they would probably want to keep them intact if they can help it and resume business as usual as soon as possible.