The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
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Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#2I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :(
Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#3This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve?
I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now.
What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#4I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.
you're paying for the brand, shelf position and other advertising
cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#5I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.
I used to get free batteries (size of my choice, I always chose the more expensive rectangular 9v ones) as an official member of the Radio Shack Battery of the Month Club.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#6This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?
> Think Moore's Law, which is dead now.
Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core.
It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest they consume the universe, but the end is not yet in sight. Recently chips have started to go multi chip and three dimensional. So even when we finally hit that scaling limit, we haven't quite reached the end of exponential progress.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#7This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?
NREL has a great report on that, although it is focused on utility-scale battery storage:
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/75385.pdf
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#8I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.
you're paying for the brand, shelf position and other advertising cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long
Looking at a couple stores, the difference is around 50 cents per AA vs. 70 cents per AA at moderate pack sizes. That's good in comparison but it's about the same price it was a decade ago. Even comparing to 1990, when "alkaline" wasn't yet the default, they were about the same price. "Alkaline: These cost about $2 to $3 a pair for C or D flashlight cells, and about half that for the AA and smaller AAA penlight batteries."
At best you can say they've dropped along with inflation, which is a factor of 2.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#9This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?
> Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core. It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest th…
hasn't it always referred to transistor count and not performance?
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#10This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?
It looks like $156 in 2019 & $137 in 2020. Estimates are $100/kwh by 2023-24 and $58/kwh by 2030.
I do wonder how a dramatic shift towards Li powered cars will effect the price. We may see demand outpace supply for a decade or more. I hope it is the other way around because cheap lithium batteries flooding the market would have many positive implications.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-...