Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this.

Note this also means COVID has been the number 1 cause of fatalities in total. The other top killers are heart disease and cancer. Heart disease kills ~660k a year and cancer 600k a year. We're not that much over 1 year now since the first cases in the USA. This means that COVID is absolute top cause of fatalities at the moment. For anyone that may feel the need to mention car crashes, guns or drugs those don't even rank in the top 10 of fatalities in the USA.

Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this.

This is anecdotal at best, but when my grandfather passed last May from COVID, his death certificate did not record the cause of death as COVID.

He tested negative twice after his month long bought with it, but only lived for another few weeks until dying of respiratory failure. We were told that because he was not testing positive at the time of death, his cause of death could not be recorded as COVID. I thought cause of death was whatever disease or injury started the chain of events that lead to one's death, but it felt like serious statistic manipulation.

(edit - grammar)

My sister's a doc. Same anecdote. She had a patient who fell at home while severely weakened with COVID. Death certificate did not say COVID.

Both HIV and the Spanish Flu killed young people with most of their lives ahead of them. All early loss of life is tragic, but the number of deaths alone isn't the only measure.

If you calculate the loss of lifespan, HIV would blow Covid out of the water, because the median age at death would mean ~40 or 50 years of life lost. Covid's median age at death is so high, it's often above a country's life expectancy.

It's also worth noting the US population has more than tripled since 1918 and grown by a third since 1990.

This isn't meant to downplay Covid's impact, but to make a more nuanced comparison with past pandemics.

Wonder how they accounted for the gun shot victims and motorcycle crashes who are accounted as covid deaths?

Looking at Italian data going back to March/April of 2020, we knew that over 50% of deaths, the patient had 3+ serious diseases and had a median age of 79+.

The true death rate is the delta of standard deaths in a “normal” year and the ones recorded now. That and somehow account for some pull-forward that’s clearly happened.

If a person was somehow due to die (assume a God exists and it’s already planned) on January 2021 of terminal cancer, but then covid found him and he died Dec 2020, what’s the real cause of death?