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The end of Facebook

blogs.forbes.com

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Re: The end of Facebook

#2
I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks...

So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Re: The end of Facebook

#3
This is borne out by my experience. A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. This might just be due to my cohort of friends getting older, but the article claims it is a general trend.

What is definitely true, is that nobody I know feels anything positive about facebook, at all. It is seen simply as a sinister, addictive[1] necessary evil. This is the case regardless of technical expertise. They continue to use it purely because of inertia and lock in. Yet they are not interested in twitter either.

Much like smoking, many people get into it as teenagers because everyone's doing it, now in their 20s they've realised that it sucks but they can't stop.

There is definitely a market for a social network thats simpler, but still full-featured like facebook, but above all one that's less "evil." One that's vocally dedicated to your privacy, and whose every move doesn't seem so machiavellianly calculated to keep you coming back, to the point where you begin to feel like you're living in a dystopian future world.

I realise that's just a long way of saying "less profitable" or even "not profitable," but there we are.

[1] The main slang term for facebook amongst it's younger users in the UK is "facecrack." It has been called that for years.

Re: The end of Facebook

#4
So, what problems do facebook/social networks solve?

* sharing photos

* keeping in touch with friends and families and getting the latest updates from them

* events

* games

* sharing links and stuff

and all these things from one place!

is there any other site/technology that provides all these benefits in one place?

Re: The end of Facebook

#5

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service.

Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

Re: The end of Facebook

#6
I'm not the biggest fan of facebook, but this guy is completely unqualified to comment on the intricacies of long-term growth and sustainability in social media... just look at his profile: http://blogs.forbes.com/people/timworstall/

He has nothing to do with the technology industry.

Also, he doesn't back up his rhetoric with data... this is an opinion piece and a flaky one at that.

Re: The end of Facebook

#7

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Would you be opposed to considering the idea that the "social network" fad is nearing its end? We devs tend to see social as though it were a silver bullet for our apps; "Make it social, people love being social!"

Maybe people are just rediscovering hanging out in person. I know that I, personally, get no value out of Facebook, whereas I get a ton out of hanging out with people.

One other thing that may be contributing is that on Facebook, activity is required. Facebook has no equivalent of sitting back, relaxing, and silently watching a movie with people.

Re: The end of Facebook

#8
This was a rather pointless article. Yes, every company will reach a point where growth slows. Yes, every company will have users who quit. Yes, valuations are high right now. Yes, many companies will get replaced by better ones that come along. And yes, it is implied that Facebook is a company.

How does any of this lead to "the end of facebook"?? The author even states "Facebook is still growing very fast in terms of page views and number of users."

Major linkbait.

Re: The end of Facebook

#9

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Why wouldn't people just give up on social networks? I think a lot of people initially sign up because a lot of their real-life friends do, use it for a while, and then get bored. To me, sites like facebook just become a hassle after a while. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels the same way.

Re: The end of Facebook

#10
post #5

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

I agree there is no alternative, but I think Facebook can go as quickly as it came. My experience is from using Orkut in Brazil. In 2005 Orkut was as hot as Facebook is now in the US, everyone was there. Nowadays everybody is moving to Facebook. I suspect the same thing will happen again 5 years from now.
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