US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map • Hacker News Board

According to this, the percentage-wise deviation from normal range the last year has been worst for 25-44 year olds. Absolute number of deaths is, of course, higher for the elderly. But the relative change is biggest in that age group.

That's a rather different narrative than I've heard. I wonder what could explain it? Secondary issues related to but not covid?

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#6

Post by usr1106 » Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 8:16 AM UTC

throwaway13337 wrote: post #5

According to this, the percentage-wise deviation from normal range the last year has been worst for 25-44 year olds. Absolute number of deaths is, of course, higher for the elderly. But the relative change is biggest in that age group. That's a rather different narrative than I've heard. I wonder what could explain it? Secondary issues related to but not covid?

My explanation has been that many of the elderly who died from covid did not have much live expectation left because they had suffered multiple diseases already. So in excess deaths they don't show that big, even though there were many cases. But the 25-44 olds would still have decades left, so every death makes a greater impact on excess deaths of their age group.

But my statistics math is on a very basic level...

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#7

Post by cies » Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 8:21 AM UTC

consp wrote: post #4

A similar page for Europe: https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations.

Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself, so I take that into account.

The main problem I have with the US data (z-scores) is that they dont include 2018 which had a serious flu going around killing a lot.

The Euromomo data does show that 2018 flu spike of mortality. And that puts things in perspective.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#8

Post by consp » Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 8:29 AM UTC

cies wrote: post #7

consp wrote: post #4

A similar page for Europe: https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that ha…

Keep in mind the following: the flue spike was without any decent form of measures. We can do a lot to reduce those.

Also note that while your anacdotal evidence is sad, it does not take into account that without those measures they might have been as badly off as well due to even more sick people being around at the same time. People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#9

Post by cies » Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 8:37 AM UTC

consp wrote: post #8

cies wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that ha…

Keep in mind the following: the flue spike was without any decent form of measures. We can do a lot to reduce those. Also note that while your anacdotal evidence is sad, it does not take into account that without those measures they might have been as badly off as well due to even more sick people being around at the same time. People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse.

> the flue spike was without any decent form of measures

I agree flu vaccines are worthless. :)

> People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse.

Totally agree! But I'm just saying that the spike also contain collateral deaths (for lack of a better word). And yes it's totally anecdotal that I know two of those, and not know even one person who was even hospitalized from C19.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#10

Post by thomasfromcdnjs » Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 8:53 AM UTC

I don't really get these excess death calculations.

Surely just looking at the past 5 years is not enough.

Wouldn't you at least have to take into account generations? (ageing populations) (So maybe 60 years of data?)

The linked graphs could easily just represent an older generation dying off. (Even the humps could just be regular flu seasons for an ageing population)

Then you have to choose a range for your generation 50-80 year olds etc

If Covid kills a large proportion over 80, and your range for generations is 50-79, the data would be completely off yet again.

There must be a lot more facets to take into consideration.

I feel like those graphs quite statistically weak. What am I missing?

It would be nice to put my money where my mouth is and actually just do my own study. But can't think of a country who would have reliable stats going back 60 years on death tallies.

(Semi relevant paper on looking at ageing population stats -> https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/494025)