Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
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Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#2... says Google.
But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’m pretty sure the Mercedes S Class had that... back before 2010?
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#3... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
>their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...)
They are now worth more than the sum of every automaker in the world.
This Visual is dated but is still relevant.
With that said, I still wish them great success.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#4Bloomberg should probably do more research.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#5At this point it’s best not to bet against Elon.
I’d bet his timelines are off, that’s always been the case. But his army of engineers know what they’re doing.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#6... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago.
Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market with Tesla. Any one of the auto makers could (and still theoretically can) develop an appealing electric car. They're simpler, cleaner and more efficient. But not a single one has been able to deliver a reasonable product. They're subsidizing the price of electric and losing 7-10k per [0] and still cannot produce a compelling product.
The legacy car companies are basically blackberry, as someone has finally shown there exists a way to create and produce a compelling car outside of the legacy participants.
Tesla actually has a path forward on self driving. They have the infrastructure, real driver data, and millions of cars on the road that can accept over the air updates. Waymo has a few Taxis in a few cities.
[0] https://insideevs.com/news/336213/moodys-says-automakers-los...
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#7... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
Tesla has just over a million cars on the road. Waymo has approximately 100,000. 100000 vehicles that have proven the ability to reach L4 autonomy, unlike tesla's.
And waymos approach isn't too be a car manufacturer, but an Uber competitor. So fewer vehicles is fine.
> They're subsidizing the price of electric and losing 7-10k per [0]
To be fair, so is tesla.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#8... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
In my opinion, the problem is Tesla and Elon refuse to acknowledge the value of LIDAR. A fused sensor approach is the only way we're going to get full autonomy. I was in this field in 2007 on the DARPA Urban challenge so maybe the state of the art indicates otherwise now however, from the NHTSA investigations into crashes from Tesla's autopilot all of them would have been fixed with even basic LIDAR.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#9... says Google. But this does ring true, and the come-to-Jesus moment on Tesla’s valuation will be when people realize this is the case. If they had a legitimate shot at being the first true players in self-driving, their valuation (which currently prices them on par with something like the sum of the top three automakers...) isn’t insane. But if it really is just lane-keep assist with intelligent cruise control, I’…
Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology. Legacy car makers are Goliaths set in the past. They're stuck to the annual release cycle and can't even over the air updates and a touch screen on par with an iPad from 8 years ago. Legacy automakers have failed to deliver on electric cars for decades. Musk talked about this. There was nothing special about the time he entered the market…
> Tesla is the only participant that has a true path to self driving technology.
You can’t make a statement without qualifying this. You attack legacy automakers but then go on to discuss Waymo. I would bet money you’re long TSLA.
You talk about OTA updates as if that’s some huge technological moat? Hell, cars have been receiving very frequent software updates for over a decade.
Re: Tesla’s autopilot won’t achieve full autonomy, Waymo CEO says
#10At this point it’s best not to bet against Elon. I’d bet his timelines are off, that’s always been the case. But his army of engineers know what they’re doing.
> At this point it’s best not to bet against Elon.
Maybe in a "should you short Tesla stock" or "will a Californian jury rule against him" sense.
But on the other hand, if you bet a friend on how many Tesla Robotaxis would be on the road by the end of 2020 you could be sitting on a nice bottle of whisky by now.