Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
theguardian.com
Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
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Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#2I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me.
If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive.
Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#3The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the heterogeneity and complexity of coming across a charger and being able to use it on your car. The requirement for registration, fobs/cards etc is crazy.
This is a good opportunity for government to step in and mandate that all electric charging points also have the option to pay by contactless/android/apple pay, for example. I don't mind if I pay a few pence more, but I do mind having to find a website on my phone and sign up then wait for a fob to be posted to me.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#4Good to hear.
I'm not driving much myself lately, but I'm really excited about the health impact of removing combustion engines from our cities.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#5I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.
Gas prices might temporarily fall as there is a very brief over-supply. Then the exact opposite will happen, gasoline will become more expensive as the economies of scale vanishes, refineries shut down permanently (never to be restarted, and no new refineries will be built), the market demand continues to dwindle, and on the cycle goes. Gasoline ends up as a largely niche fuel many decades out.
And that's before we get to the obviously anti-fossil fuel era we're entering, where they will increasingly hammer fuels like gasoline with taxes, driving the cost up around the globe. Even if somehow the market didn't drive the prices up from the economic efficiency change I described, the taxes will regardless and that's guaranteed to occur.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#6I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.
Governments certainly have the power to screw things up, but also to accelerate things. If electrics take over so much of the market that gasoline gets super cheap, there won't be that much political resistance to a carbon price on gasoline, since most people are driving electrics anyway.
Besides that, it's not all about fuel costs. Electric vehicles are fun, and generally low-maintenance.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#7I rarely drive, but can't wait to own one. Where I live (and for a lot of people who live in cities) there is only on-street parking.
Will be interesting to see how increased electric vehicle ownership might happen for people without a garage or designated parking.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#8The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…
California is banning sales of new internal combustion engines in 2035 as well. That should help incentivize the tech/infrastructure a bit.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#9I don't understand how this can happen. An equilibrium seems more likely to me. If massive amounts of people move to electric vehicles gas prices will fall. This will make combustion vehicles more attractive. Also, government depends on all the taxes they put on combustion vehicles. As those revenues decline they may choose to get that money from electric vehicle drivers under the guise of 'congestion' taxes or such.
Governments certainly have the power to screw things up, but also to accelerate things. If electrics take over so much of the market that gasoline gets super cheap, there won't be that much political resistance to a carbon price on gasoline, since most people are driving electrics anyway. Besides that, it's not all about fuel costs. Electric vehicles are fun, and generally low-maintenance.
>there won't be that much political resistance to a carbon price on gasoline, since most people are driving electrics anyway.
So long as screwing people too poor to justify a new or new-ish car is politically unacceptable there will be some resistance.
Cars from the early '00s are still on the road. It's gonna take another ~20yr for the fleet to turn over organically.
Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption
#10The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…
The 2030 date will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030, then clear economic opportunities to service the future demand for electric cars and charging infrastructure become apparent.
This sidesteps the issues with network effects. You don't have to worry about building a charging network before electric cars become widespread, because the Government is sending a clear signal of when that transition will happen.