We have no idea what happens next
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We have no idea what happens next
1–10 of 38 posts
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#2Ah, to write a whole article about a known concept without giving it due service. Methinks "The butterfly effect" deserves a mention.
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#3Reads a bit like a 'Connections' episode :-) But I agree with the fundamental premise, the harder you perturb a system, the less predictable the output of the perturbation will be.
This year has shown a lot of people (myself included) that they can live in a very different way in the world. Some of that may become the new normal.
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#4Tangentially, when COVID-19 forced my company to go work from home it thrust in to my face all the things that about that company that made me hate my job and gave me anxiety attacks.
I ultimately quit that job with nothing lined up and found a much more fulfilling job, with better pay. I don't think I would have quit that last job if it wasn't for the disruption, and I would have still been miserable.
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#5I used to enjoy Morgan Housel's writing but it feels to me like it has grown somewhat vacuous and formulaically click-baity of late. And those short, one-sentence paragraphs which every copywriter claims pull your eyes down the page? I see them and I click elsewhere.
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#6> ” Would he have pursued a career in chemistry, focused on agriculture, and discovered nitrogen-based fertilizer if it weren’t for Mt. Tambora’s eruption 7,000 miles away that caused a German famine?
Probably not.
Which is wild.”
I would say “maybe”, but that isn’t “wild”. What’s the base of this assumption? Also, I would say that probably other person would have discovered it. It’s not like that weren’t incentives to improve agriculture before the famine. The author just glossed over of the essential research of synthesizing ammonia not made by Liebig. Who are all those people? Were they all motivated by the famine?
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#7> ” Would he have pursued a career in chemistry, focused on agriculture, and discovered nitrogen-based fertilizer if it weren’t for Mt. Tambora’s eruption 7,000 miles away that caused a German famine? Probably not. Which is wild.” I would say “maybe”, but that isn’t “wild”. What’s the base of this assumption? Also, I would say that probably other person would have discovered it. It’s not like that weren’t incentives…
It's difficult to model the truth conditions for counterfactuals.
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#8Ah, to write a whole article about a known concept without giving it due service. Methinks "The butterfly effect" deserves a mention.
I think it's a bit different than the butterfly effect. When a major event affects everyone somewhat, it's like billions of chances for a butterfly effect all happening simultaneously. An aggregate butterfly effect where major change is practically guaranteed.
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#9Tangentially, when COVID-19 forced my company to go work from home it thrust in to my face all the things that about that company that made me hate my job and gave me anxiety attacks. I ultimately quit that job with nothing lined up and found a much more fulfilling job, with better pay. I don't think I would have quit that last job if it wasn't for the disruption, and I would have still been miserable.
> when COVID-19 forced my company to go work from home it thrust in to my face all the things that about that company that made me hate my job
The main thing we had to adjust to at my work during that period was understanding just how many decisions were being without all the stakeholders present.
I had a good two months where every day felt like being a chef who was asked how the banquet preparations were going, without anyone having ever informed me there was even a banquet scheduled.
"Oh, we had an hour long call the other day about that. Didn't figure out needed to be in on it"
Re: We have no idea what happens next
#10[deleted]