California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
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Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#2Except for protesting, still can't catch it that way.
Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#3California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow.
Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy, even with wide-scale reopening.
Perhaps California could have attempted a middle ground strategy. Let the virus spread just a slight amount more than occurred during the initial lockdown in order to gradually spread immunity. The level of immunity may be nowhere near "herd immunity", but any amount of immunity in a population makes transmission of the virus more difficult.
EDIT: Part of why I make this strange argument is because CA seems to have endured a lockdown for virtually no gains. Now, the lockdowns will begin again. Perhaps allowing the virus to spread at a low and manageable rate would have conferred some benefits in terms of increased immunity in the population, thus making it easier to suppress the transmission rate moving forward.
Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#4California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…
I think we should wait to make determinations on cause until we see if that changes once the weather turns in the north and Europe and people return to heated spaces.
If this was really a matter of herd immunity, Florida wouldn’t be getting hammered right now.
Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#5California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…
What is the current sentiment on the pandemic like in California, given that they've been on lockdown for the longest? Are people getting antsy? Is there an "index" that measures sentiment across different states?
Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#6California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…
The reason for case counts staying relatively low in those places has a lot less to do with "herd immunity" and a lot more to do with still being careful. Even though a huge number of people were infected, it was still a very small amount of the population overall, not anywhere near enough to affect the transmission rate with no restrictions.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-aft...
In MA we're not even close to entirely reopened yet, but as we continue step by step the transmission rate is ticking back up unfortunately: https://rt.live/us/MA
Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#7California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…
"Perhaps California could have attempted a middle ground strategy. Let the virus spread just a slight amount more than occurred during the initial lockdown in order to gradually spread immunity."
It's not even clear yet whether exposure to this virus confers immunity, nor how long such immunity would last if it does exist.
From the newest episode of This Week in Virology[1]:
Daniel Griffin: The tough thing, right, is that if you look at the "common" coronaviruses, they don't give us long-lasting immunity. Traditionally you could be reinfected multiple times in the same year. ... We've known this for the other coronaviruses, that if you get OC43 or 229e or any of the other, you don't get lifelong immunity, you can get sick again, and it's not clear that that second infection is milder than the first. My word of caution is to be careful about, you know, when we hear that 5 or 10 percent of the population is seropositive, I don't know what that means yet.
[1] - starting at about 14'34" in to episode 638: https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-638/
Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#8California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…
"Perhaps California could have attempted a middle ground strategy. Let the virus spread just a slight amount more than occurred during the initial lockdown in order to gradually spread immunity." It's not even clear yet whether exposure to this virus confers immunity, nor how long such immunity would last if it does exist. From the newest episode of This Week in Virology [1]: Daniel Griffin: The tough thing, right, i…
Though it has not been conclusively proven, literally all signs point to meanginful immunity and virtually no signs point to the opposite. Dozens of vaccines are being developed on this assumption, and there have been zero confirmed instances of reinfection of a fully recovered individual.
Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#9The only question now is, which state will win the race to be the first to reinstitute stay-at-home orders?
Re: California imposing sweeping rollback of reopening plans amid case surges
#10California shut down very hard and fast. When they reopened, nearly 100% of the population was still susceptible to the virus, so it spread like wildfire. Especially since the reopening was not exactly slow. Compare this to the Northeast and much of Western Europe where the virus spread too quickly until lockdowns reduced the spread. Now, keeping the transmission rate low in those areas has become comparatively easy,…
The reason for case counts staying relatively low in those places has a lot less to do with "herd immunity" and a lot more to do with still being careful. Even though a huge number of people were infected, it was still a very small amount of the population overall, not anywhere near enough to affect the transmission rate with no restrictions. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/herd-immunity-questioned-aft... In MA we're…
If you look at the numbers throughout the Northeast, you see a remarkable consistency. New cases are at a trickle, despite lots of reopening (more in some places than others) and weeks of mass protests throughout the larger cities.
I am in NYC and mask compliance here is... OK. But people are generally going out a lot, eating out a lot, shopping, etc, with very little concern. Weeks keep passing without even a tiny uptick in the rate of new cases. Clearly, there is something suppressing the transmission rate in this region. The exact same holds true for Europe.