Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
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Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#2> “The findings suggest an alternative way of thinking about the COVID-19 pandemic.
Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially,” Silverman explained. “A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alternative explanation to the large number of deaths and overcrowding of hospitals we have seen in certain areas of the world.”
Isn't this exactly what the "flatten the curve" crowd has been saying?
Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#3How does this reconcile with the actual data we have on total infection rate in e.g. Spain where a representative poll was done?
Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#4> “The findings suggest an alternative way of thinking about the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially,” Silverman explained. “A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alt…
yes, but the flatten the curve crowd assumes a higher lethality
Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#5At this point every scientist in the world is throwing any random theory out there in the hope one sticks and they will be showered in new funding. The track record of Neil Ferguson‘s Group at Imperial is representative of this industry, however.
Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#6How does this reconcile with the actual data we have on total infection rate in e.g. Spain where a representative poll was done?
Or Australia where about 10% of the population has been tested.
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavir...
Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#7> “The findings suggest an alternative way of thinking about the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results suggest that the overwhelming effects of COVID-19 may have less to do with the virus’ lethality and more to do with how quickly it was able to spread through communities initially,” Silverman explained. “A lower fatality rate coupled with a higher prevalence of disease and rapid growth of regional epidemics provides an alt…
yes, but the flatten the curve crowd assumes a higher lethality
Do they?
I think we have pretty ok lethality estimates somewhere in the ballpark of 0.2 to 0.5 percent.
Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#8Whats the non-COVID-19 pneumonia# for 2019-2020?
CDC Influenza and pneumonia deaths by influenza season and age: United States, 2008–2015: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pn...
Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#9How does this reconcile with the actual data we have on total infection rate in e.g. Spain where a representative poll was done?
We now know a significant amount of people have no symptoms or very light symptoms and no antibody response. An anecdote. My friend and his wife got tested when giving birth. She was positive for antibodies he was not. It is quite possible that for ever person who had antibodies there is some unknown x of people who got it and never developed antibodies.
Re: Initial Covid-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported
#10History books will not be kind to our past and present handling of covid-19.
Incurring incredible economic and social damage without fully understanding the threat. It’s been very clear for some time that covid is not nearly as lethal as once feared AND even more clear that we over quarantined.
In the UK we have hospitals built specifically for covid that are completely unused. This isn’t flattening the curve, it’s choking it. A vaccine isn’t happening anytime soon and the only way forward is herd immunity. This means we need new infections.