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In Defense of Bad Ideas

surjan.substack.com

1–10 of 54 posts

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#3
I'd forgotten about that stuff, but it seems like the bad idea was the prize itself.

I mean, the winner did just enough to get the prize, and stopped, and nothing further ever came of it, right?

Just because of how SpaceX overshadows everything in retrospect.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#4

I'd forgotten about that stuff, but it seems like the bad idea was the prize itself. I mean, the winner did just enough to get the prize, and stopped, and nothing further ever came of it, right? Just because of how SpaceX overshadows everything in retrospect.

No, they're still going at it. Partnered with Virgin to make further iterations of the Spaceship One concept under The Spaceship Company. They're shooting to do private spaceflights under the name Virgin Galactic.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#5
Bad ideas are magical when they come in the form of long call options (bounded cost, unlimited upside).

Bad ideas destroy companies/nations/civilizations when they come in the form of short put options (bounded benefit, unlimited downside).

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#6
post #4

I'd forgotten about that stuff, but it seems like the bad idea was the prize itself. I mean, the winner did just enough to get the prize, and stopped, and nothing further ever came of it, right? Just because of how SpaceX overshadows everything in retrospect.

No, they're still going at it. Partnered with Virgin to make further iterations of the Spaceship One concept under The Spaceship Company. They're shooting to do private spaceflights under the name Virgin Galactic.

Orbit though?

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#7
Would have loved to read a longer writeup exploring that premise (which I agree with). The difference between Bad ideas and Good ideas, is determined by the outcome. Something that seems bad but ends up working (milliondollarhomepage, pet-rock, etc.) ends up being brilliant, in the eyes of the public.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#8

Bad ideas are magical when they come in the form of long call options (bounded cost, unlimited upside). Bad ideas destroy companies/nations/civilizations when they come in the form of short put options (bounded benefit, unlimited downside).

This is indeed very well put. However sometimes due to nature of the idea it is hard to evaluate the extent of downside in advance and what may seem like a limited downside actually turns out to be worse.

Re: In Defense of Bad Ideas

#10

Bad ideas are magical when they come in the form of long call options (bounded cost, unlimited upside). Bad ideas destroy companies/nations/civilizations when they come in the form of short put options (bounded benefit, unlimited downside).

True. Also: when one is in a local maximum, bad ideas are the easiest way to get in the attraction basin of a better one.
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