Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
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Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#2While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.)
You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity.
I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily toward age and whether or not you are in a nursing home. Seniors outside of nursing homes are doing an order of magnitude better than those in homes.
Over half of US counties have no COVID deaths. The number are skewed terribly by NY/NJ as well.
Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#3While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…
I agree, I think he is vastly underestimating the number of people who have comorbidities.
Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#4While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…
NYC's data defines underlying illness as "disease, asthma, heart disease, a weakened immune system, obesity, diabetes, kidney disease, liver disease and cancer."
As I point out in the thread, even estimating 50% of people under 65 have an underlying illness (lets say thats 25% under 17, 50% 18-44, and 75% in 45-64 to roughly get us there) moves the "Under 65 healthy IFR" only up to 0.09%.
Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#5While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…
I agree, I think he is vastly underestimating the number of people who have comorbidities.
Assume you mean who "do" have comorbidities?
Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#6Spreadsheet with data and sources:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bKbRccSVz-u5HtoLK0zb...
Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#7CDCs own numbers confirm this. Time to wake up. Government will dominate you if you let it. Give them and inch and they will take a mile every time.
Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#8Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#9While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…
Also, 0.05% sounds like a tiny number, but is larger than mortality probability of all other causes in the USA for people in the 1-21 age bracket, still is half of it at age 33 and about a quarter of it at age 45 (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html), and that’s even with those statistics including people with comorbidities.
Looking at it another way, if the entire population were healthy, that’s 160.000 deaths. That’s four times the number of yearly traffic deaths, double the number of overdose deaths (both already high for comparable countries)
Those 160.000 might not return every year, but if this behaves as a typical virus, it could mutate enough to return every few years.
Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities
#10The mortality rate is not the only consideration. People don't want to die, sure, but they also don't want to spend a couple of weeks in the hospital. And that risk, even for those under 65, is much, much higher: at least 1 in 100 (Source:https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page).
Not only do individuals not want to spend time in the hospital, we as a society don't want them there either. Assuming we need 60% of the population to recover in order to achieve herd immunity, and assuming we somehow isolate all of our 65+ year olds from the virus, that would mean almost 2M hospitalizations in the US.