The Changing World Order
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The Changing World Order
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Re: The Changing World Order
#2> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US)
This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it.
Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth.
Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied.
The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and China's economic prowess will be severely undermined.
China doesn't have a whole lot of leverage – it's cheap and convenient, but its cheap labor is easily replaceable, while Western demand (mostly US, really) and its technology are not.
EDIT: Additionally, the balance of power used to change much more frequently back when we didn't have nuclear weapons. From the introduction, it seems this analysis is entirely economic when it ought to also factor in politics (domestic and international), strategy and military power.
Re: The Changing World Order
#3> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…
Dalio is kissing up to CCP
Re: The Changing World Order
#4Highly recommend listening to this full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrxYhv2O3wU. It's long but worth it, and it touches on many of the points he brings up in the article. In fact, the interview occurred just a week after this article was published.
Re: The Changing World Order
#5> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…
Wasn't quite a lot of what you say about China true about the USA in the 19th century? Not saying the cases are the same and I am skeptical of grand historical theses, but I don't think you can glibly dismiss China either.
Personally I see China replacing a superpower, but the superpower being replaced is Russia. Russia is by nearly every metric declining and much faster than the USA.
The question is whether the USA will remain the dominant superpower or whether China will be a serious challenger by mid century. To really challenge the USA China would have to export more than just goods and services but also ideas and culture. I see a little bit of ideas being exported but very little cultural export happening.
Re: The Changing World Order
#6> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…
> but its cheap labor is easily replaceable
If it's that easy, it should have happened by now.
Re: The Changing World Order
#7> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…
All you said might be true 5 years ago. But many no longer holds.
China is no longer an export dependent economy, and moving manufacturing away from it, is hard.
The belief that manufacturing is about labor is simply false.
Dalio is pretty smart to smell the trend, maybe just because he is less idealogical driven but data-driven.
Re: The Changing World Order
#8> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…
> but its cheap labor is easily replaceable If it's that easy, it should have happened by now.
> If it's that easy, it should have happened by now.
Why? It's not convenient. I'm just saying it could be done if necessary.
It isn't convenient because China also offers infrastructure, a rich supply-chain of similarly off-shored labor / parts and it's "the devil you know" vs. e.g. Vietnam
Re: The Changing World Order
#9Lost me in the first paragraph. Examining a history of money supply and debt that predates Bretton-Woods is simply not relevant. Everything I read could have been lifted from a comment thread in /r/Libertarian 10 years ago. The last financial crisis was the ultimate test for fiat currency. One that was pointed at as the moment that debt-driven currency would crash and burn by a lot of gold bugs.
Instead, a deluge of loose money came and went. Banks recovered. Markets recovered. Jobs recovered. Everything recovered. Even if the face of continued fiscal profligacy. There is absolutely no logical conclusion that can be drawn except for fiat currency being one of the greatest accomplishments of the 20th century.
Re: The Changing World Order
#10> a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US) This is a pretty bold claim, at least for now. People have been claiming this is the case for decades, but I still don't see it. Western (US / EU) demand is what drives China's growth. Technology in China is still by and large imported / copied. The West can move manufacturing back home (or anywhere else with cheap labor) and Ch…
Wasn't quite a lot of what you say about China true about the USA in the 19th century? Not saying the cases are the same and I am skeptical of grand historical theses, but I don't think you can glibly dismiss China either. Personally I see China replacing a superpower, but the superpower being replaced is Russia. Russia is by nearly every metric declining and much faster than the USA. The question is whether the USA…
Russia's debt is minuscule in comparison to the other two.