Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
japantimes.co.jp
Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
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Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#2In South Korea epidemic was started with one sick cult member spreading it to wast number of people. In Italy the person who started Lombardy cluster was first asymptomatic for weeks, was later misdiagnosed and spreading the disease in hospital. It seems that the epidemic is starting without similar super-spreaders in Japan.
Case fatality deaths to recovered rate in Japan is 18%. In South Korea it's 6.6%. This might indicate that Japan has 3X larger undocumented/documented rate.
This early in the exponential curve 2x difference is just 1-2 week delay.
Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#3This interesting and really shows the power of social distancing. I believe this is also why China/Korea/Taiwan/Singapore were able to overcome the disease. The virus doesn’t spread well without close contact.
Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#4This interesting and really shows the power of social distancing. I believe this is also why China/Korea/Taiwan/Singapore were able to overcome the disease. The virus doesn’t spread well without close contact.
I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)
Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#5> New tests that produce produce results in 10-15 minutes are becoming available, but even with the improved tech, under the current policy a test will only be administered in the most extreme circumstances, when people have had a fever for four days or more.
This is an important factor that may indicate this "outlier" is more of a delay, rather than a reality of some exception.
As a resident, I'm quite concerned about the lack of testing.
Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#6Some days ago, I found this comment from someone living in Japan.
Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#7In South Korea epidemic was started with one sick cult member spreading it to wast number of people. In Italy the person who started Lombardy cluster was first asymptomatic for weeks, was later misdiagnosed and spreading the disease in hospital. It seems that the epidemic is starting without similar super-spreaders in Japan. Case fatality deaths to recovered rate in Japan is 18%. In South Korea it's 6.6%. This might…
There were 30 or so cases before the Shincheonji contagion, in which, yes, one cult member single-handedly tripled the number of cases in one day. But at the usual 33% per day intra-country contagion rate, even single-handedly tripling the number of cases only moves the calendar forward by about 4 days.
I do agree that Japan probably has diagnosed a much smaller proportion of cases.
Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#8This interesting and really shows the power of social distancing. I believe this is also why China/Korea/Taiwan/Singapore were able to overcome the disease. The virus doesn’t spread well without close contact.
I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)
Agree with this. I live in Hong Kong and there was no forced lockdown here either because 95% of the people wear them voluntarily.
Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#9In South Korea epidemic was started with one sick cult member spreading it to wast number of people. In Italy the person who started Lombardy cluster was first asymptomatic for weeks, was later misdiagnosed and spreading the disease in hospital. It seems that the epidemic is starting without similar super-spreaders in Japan. Case fatality deaths to recovered rate in Japan is 18%. In South Korea it's 6.6%. This might…
The outlier is that Japanese statistics don't seem to show an exponential curve at all. Their highest daily counts of new cases remain in mid-February, and they've been oscillating closely around 50 a day for over 2 weeks now. There's almost surely undertesting happening based on their testing criteria, but even with fixed testing criteria, exponential growth at any rate above like 10% per day should have been obvious in severe cases by now.
Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?
#10This interesting and really shows the power of social distancing. I believe this is also why China/Korea/Taiwan/Singapore were able to overcome the disease. The virus doesn’t spread well without close contact.
I think it will turn that wearing masks has a much bigger effect than anticipated. (I suppose that's a form of social distancing.)
Imagine if the whole pandemic could have been prevented if we just manufactured masks at a higher rate and everyone wore them.
Now even hospitals are running out.