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Corona Simulator

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Corona Simulator

#2

Post by yummypaint »

This is a great intuitive set of models. It also suggests scenarios where a poorly implemented quarantine could make things worse by intensifying contact and increasing spread between those isolated together, and then releasing everyone while still contagious. It drives home that if people are forcibly kept in close quarters for quarantine, its essential to see the full time period through. If resources might eventually wear thin enough that a quarantine may not be sustainable, it's probably better not to do it at all.

Re: Corona Simulator

#3

Post by raynguyen »

The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic.

Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of cases where people get affected explode once again?

The question is when will this virus go away? (if ever). Will everybody catch it eventually? Will the panic fade and Corona be just another (and much deadlier) strain of the flu?

Re: Corona Simulator

#4

Post by pvinis »

Can I just comment on the (IMO bad) choice of colors? It's hard to see the difference of sick and recovered, especially in the big square.

Other than that, nice simulations. :)

Re: Corona Simulator

#5

Post by mensetmanusman »

yummypaint wrote: post #2

This is a great intuitive set of models. It also suggests scenarios where a poorly implemented quarantine could make things worse by intensifying contact and increasing spread between those isolated together, and then releasing everyone while still contagious. It drives home that if people are forcibly kept in close quarters for quarantine, its essential to see the full time period through. If resources might eventua…

This is what happened in China.

People in Wuhan heard the quarantine was coming and hundreds of thousand fled.

Then, everyone was forced to stay together without access to medical supplies due to the quarantine. That is why the fatality rate was so much higher in Wuhan.

If China hadn’t arrested the whistle blowers, the situation would be a lot different.

Re: Corona Simulator

#6

Post by ysleepy »

raynguyen wrote: post #3

The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic. Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of…

It is still hard to grasp that the entire human civilization will be infected with this not yet fully understood virus.

What if it makes everyone infertile? Real Children of Men scenario.

The measures taken are optimistic, but when everything is one the line, you have to make pessimistic decisions. First avoid human extinction.

Making bets with human kind as the wager are immoral in the highest order.

Re: Corona Simulator

#7

Post by cl42 »

raynguyen wrote: post #3

The thing is, with these models. Everyone will eventually catch the virus and either dies off or recovers. If this happens in real life, the consequences are dire and catastrophic. Social distancing and avoiding large groups will obviously save lives and we flatten the curve to allow for treatment of individuals that will require hospitalization. But once the novelty of social distancing wears off. Will the number of…

That’s actually not correct, and the point of the simulations is to show that. By social distancing, you reduce the likelihood of everyone getting the disease. The use of social distancing brings the probability that everyone gets infected at some point closer to 0.0 but doesn’t make it 0.0. It’s possible to have a result where you either have people who were never infected, or ones who are fully recovered.

That’s what they’re driving at.

Re: Corona Simulator

#8

Post by lucb1e »

Can't view due to cookiewall, is this an article about a simulator somewhere (that someone could link) or is the simulator their own?

Re: Corona Simulator

#9

Post by jariel »

yummypaint wrote: post #2

This is a great intuitive set of models. It also suggests scenarios where a poorly implemented quarantine could make things worse by intensifying contact and increasing spread between those isolated together, and then releasing everyone while still contagious. It drives home that if people are forcibly kept in close quarters for quarantine, its essential to see the full time period through. If resources might eventua…

I think it illustrates what happened on the 'cruise ship' (i.e. close proximity, clustered) quarantines, but it doesn't very well explain what real, individual quarantine would do.
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