Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
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Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
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Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#2In simplest possible SIR model that takes into account the growing recovered and immune, (1 − 1/R0) of the population gets infected. R0 is the reproduction rate.
R0 | % of population
----------------
2.5 60%
2.0 50%
1.5 30%
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#3China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#4In simplest possible SIR model that takes into account the growing recovered and immune, (1 − 1/R0) of the population gets infected. R0 is the reproduction rate. R0 | % of population ---------------- 2.5 60% 2.0 50% 1.5 30% The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. There is no reason to assume it's constant or same in different countries and cultures.
In countries where sanitation is an issue will the infection rate ever slow and when people from countries who have it controlled travel to those countries does it restart ?
I think I have more questions now that I watched the video than I do answers :)
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#5China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
> Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
But also, at least 3,097 people out of the 80,699 have already died, and by the same measure, 20,283 of the confirmed have yet to recover.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#6In simplest possible SIR model that takes into account the growing recovered and immune, (1 − 1/R0) of the population gets infected. R0 is the reproduction rate. R0 | % of population ---------------- 2.5 60% 2.0 50% 1.5 30% The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. There is no reason to assume it's constant or same in different countries and cultures.
> The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions.
In looking at the outbreak gripping Italy, it seems like hard quarantine is the most basic precaution, and perhaps we should be taking it before the first hundreds of people die in each of our countries.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#7China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
> Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered. But also, at least 3,097 people out of the 80,699 have already died, and by the same measure, 20,283 of the confirmed have yet to recover.
The death ratio should only increase as the medical resources are exhausted
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#8In simplest possible SIR model that takes into account the growing recovered and immune, (1 − 1/R0) of the population gets infected. R0 is the reproduction rate. R0 | % of population ---------------- 2.5 60% 2.0 50% 1.5 30% The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. There is no reason to assume it's constant or same in different countries and cultures.
> The effective reproduction rate decreases when people take precautions. In looking at the outbreak gripping Italy, it seems like hard quarantine is the most basic precaution, and perhaps we should be taking it before the first hundreds of people die in each of our countries.
[dead]
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered. But also, at least 3,097 people out of the 80,699 have already died, and by the same measure, 20,283 of the confirmed have yet to recover.
The death ratio should only increase as the medical resources are exhausted
If the curve has flatlined in China and only 20,283 remain, China should not have a further problem with resources.
The rest of the world, of course, is just getting started.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#10China looks like its growth has flatlined, while the rest of the world is moving along an exponential curve. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... Also, notice that 57k out of 81k have recovered.
China has only flatlined because extremely aggressive social distancing. I don't see that in the US occurring.