Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
theguardian.com
Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
1–10 of 17 posts
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#2For bacteria, antibiotic resistance is a big deal and aggravated by routine oversubscribing and meat agriculture. We need more antibiotics and phages quickly.
For fungi and yeast, there aren't enough antimycotics and they too are overused. We need more antimycotics and phages quickly also.
For viruses, meat agriculture, forest destruction and urban sprawl are contributory factors leading to faster mutations and jumping species eventually into us. It would be nice to have a mostly automated vaccine development lab system that can assemble and test thousands of compounds simultaneously.
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#3[deleted]
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#4This is why it's so important that we do everything in our power to achieve a "societal backup" by expanding to at least one more planet.
At a grander level, this is what Elon Musk, SpaceX, and other related endeavors are all about.
Humans are terrible at considering and planning for large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events ala pandemics, nuclear holocaust, and the long term effects of climate change.
The only real way to ensure that we don't drive ourselves extinct as a society (either purposefully or accidentally) is to create a backup copy of society, just like you would do for any other extremely valuable piece of information.
Onward to Mars!
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#5This is why it's so important that we do everything in our power to achieve a "societal backup" by expanding to at least one more planet. At a grander level, this is what Elon Musk, SpaceX, and other related endeavors are all about. Humans are terrible at considering and planning for large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events ala pandemics, nuclear holocaust, and the long term effects of climate change. Th…
Making a reasonable-sized, sustainable colony on Mars would arguably be significantly more work than considering and planning for "large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events".
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#6This is why it's so important that we do everything in our power to achieve a "societal backup" by expanding to at least one more planet. At a grander level, this is what Elon Musk, SpaceX, and other related endeavors are all about. Humans are terrible at considering and planning for large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events ala pandemics, nuclear holocaust, and the long term effects of climate change. Th…
I generally agree, but a self-sustaining moon colony is far more practical, assuming water can be found there:
1. plenty of solar power
2. close to earth
3. easy to launch out of its gravity well
4. lunar base technology can be iterated far more rapidly
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#7This is why it's so important that we do everything in our power to achieve a "societal backup" by expanding to at least one more planet. At a grander level, this is what Elon Musk, SpaceX, and other related endeavors are all about. Humans are terrible at considering and planning for large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events ala pandemics, nuclear holocaust, and the long term effects of climate change. Th…
Regardless where you put your colony to, if you keep up a transportation system to that colony and back, you end up enabling spread of the disease. Coronavirus only spread so quickly because of airplane travel. Had we cancelled all airplane, train and ship traffic to and from China early enough, the virus wouldn't have spread as quickly. If in the future we have an intergalactic society with FTL travel, and one colony discovers an ancient virus that kills everyone, the virus will spread with speeds faster than light, because that's our underlying travel method.
To meet threats like coronavirus, you don't need a different planet. Any remote island would do, like easter island, as long as you shut down traffic soon enough.
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#8This is why it's so important that we do everything in our power to achieve a "societal backup" by expanding to at least one more planet. At a grander level, this is what Elon Musk, SpaceX, and other related endeavors are all about. Humans are terrible at considering and planning for large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events ala pandemics, nuclear holocaust, and the long term effects of climate change. Th…
Regardless where you put your colony to, if you keep up a transportation system to that colony and back, you end up enabling spread of the disease. Coronavirus only spread so quickly because of airplane travel. Had we cancelled all airplane, train and ship traffic to and from China early enough, the virus wouldn't have spread as quickly. If in the future we have an intergalactic society with FTL travel, and one colon…
New transportation keeps reducing the time delays for trips, but if you’re talking other planets, how fast do you think we can get? I expect a lull.
Of course if panspermia turns out to be true, we could discover some new branch of life that medicine or mammalian immune systems struggle to identify, but which likes to chew on bones or collagen, turning us all into jello.
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#9For bacteria, antibiotic resistance is a big deal and aggravated by routine oversubscribing and meat agriculture. We need more antibiotics and phages quickly. For fungi and yeast, there aren't enough antimycotics and they too are overused. We need more antimycotics and phages quickly also. For viruses, meat agriculture, forest destruction and urban sprawl are contributory factors leading to faster mutations and jumpi…
>For viruses, meat agriculture, forest destruction and urban sprawl are contributory factors leading to faster mutations and jumping species eventually into us.
At this point you have to acknowledge that cultural factors are responsible for the majority of modern outbreaks. We know about the meat markets in China. They are as endemic as the viruses to the various animals they eat. No other country on Earth has originated this many animal to human outbreaks.
This is not an environmental issue.
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#10In 2010, my home of Christchurch has a serious earthquake.
In 2011, it suffered another far more serious earthquake.
The 1st one provided a full dress rehearsal for the 2nd one.
I wonder of the same will be said for pandemics?
Coronavirus is by no means a dystopian apocalypse.
But it could be an opportunity to help us learn to prevent one.
My concern is around the cost benefit analysis from the perspective of elected leadership.
Prevention doesn’t pay politically.