PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
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PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
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Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#2The doubling period of Covid-19 is between 1.8 and 4.1 days where large scale quarantine measures aren't being taken [1][2]. The conference is in 43 days so without large scale quarantines and stopping large events then the number of cases in the US could grow to as many as 800,000 assuming a doubling period of 3 days. It seems therefore fairly obvious that most large events in April will have to be cancelled.
[1] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs15010-020-01401... [2] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25723
Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#3The doubling period of Covid-19 is between 1.8 and 4.1 days where large scale quarantine measures aren't being taken [1][2]. The conference is in 43 days so without large scale quarantines and stopping large events then the number of cases in the US could grow to as many as 800,000 assuming a doubling period of 3 days. It seems therefore fairly obvious that most large events in April will have to be cancelled. [1] ht…
Thanks for sharing the journal articles.
According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases.
If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.
Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#4The doubling period of Covid-19 is between 1.8 and 4.1 days where large scale quarantine measures aren't being taken [1][2]. The conference is in 43 days so without large scale quarantines and stopping large events then the number of cases in the US could grow to as many as 800,000 assuming a doubling period of 3 days. It seems therefore fairly obvious that most large events in April will have to be cancelled. [1] ht…
Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.
Its difficult to tell because the US hasn't been doing as much testing as other countries. You can look at the curves for various countries at https://covid.bio/ Most countries that haven't initiated large scale quarantines have a doubling period of between 1.5 and 5 days
Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#5Maybe buy a few temperature guns and point them at people's foreheads before they enter?
Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.
Its difficult to tell because the US hasn't been doing as much testing as other countries. You can look at the curves for various countries at https://covid.bio/ Most countries that haven't initiated large scale quarantines have a doubling period of between 1.5 and 5 days
On the other hand, one wonders if that curve measures not infection rates, but testing kit manufacturing output.
Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#7The doubling period of Covid-19 is between 1.8 and 4.1 days where large scale quarantine measures aren't being taken [1][2]. The conference is in 43 days so without large scale quarantines and stopping large events then the number of cases in the US could grow to as many as 800,000 assuming a doubling period of 3 days. It seems therefore fairly obvious that most large events in April will have to be cancelled. [1] ht…
Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.
I think the numbers can't be looked at that way for a variety of reasons, primarily the fact that we are rapidly expanding testing capability in the US right now, so we will see a rapid increase in the number of diagnosed cases. However that does not mean there is the same rapid increase in the number of cases so quickly. Basically we are going to be catching up with cases from the past 2-4 weeks in the coming week.
Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#8Maybe buy a few temperature guns and point them at people's foreheads before they enter?
Due to the long incubation period, infected people can be infectious even while not presenting symptoms or relatively asymptomatic.
Bai, Yan, Lingsheng Yao, Tao Wei, Fei Tian, Dong-Yan Jin, Lijuan Chen, and Meiyun Wang. “Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19.” JAMA, February 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2565.
Guan, Wei-jie, Zheng-yi Ni, Yu Hu, Wen-hua Liang, Chun-quan Ou, Jian-xing He, Lei Liu, et al. “Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China.” New England Journal of Medicine 0, no. 0 (February 28, 2020): null. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032.
"Patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings. ... Fever was present in 43.8% of the patients on admission but developed in 88.7% during hospitalization."
Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#9Eagerly looking for the updates on this!
Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19
#10The doubling period of Covid-19 is between 1.8 and 4.1 days where large scale quarantine measures aren't being taken [1][2]. The conference is in 43 days so without large scale quarantines and stopping large events then the number of cases in the US could grow to as many as 800,000 assuming a doubling period of 3 days. It seems therefore fairly obvious that most large events in April will have to be cancelled. [1] ht…
Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.
the us has tested less than 500 cases in total