Bubble talk (2015)

I dont think he won the first bet did he? Airbnb, Palantir, Dropbox, Uber, Spacex, and Pinterest together are less than 200 bn and falling. All still pretty good companies (not you Uber), doing interesting things though.

bet 2 - I have not done the calculation, but just stripe puts it way beyond the 27 bn figgure.

bet 3 - plenty of good companies in that batch. Razorpay was valued at half a billion dollars in last round. Overall seems like he was right. https://www.ycdb.co/batch/w15

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#5

Post by fyp » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 1:51 PM UTC

People were projecting that he will lose last year: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18792890

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#6

Post by NhanH » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 1:52 PM UTC

No macro collapse, and the first proposition didn't work out: Uber: 50B, Palantir < 40B, Airbnb < 40B, Dropbox < 10B, Pinterest ~10B, SpaceX < 40B. So total 160-180B market cap. Close, but not quite.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#7

Post by Matticus_Rex » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 1:52 PM UTC

Ecco wrote: post #2

So... Did he win? I’m especially curious about part 3 :)

Part 1 didn't quite make it. Eyeballing it I think it's around $150B, which I think still substantially backs his point, but it loses him the bet.

Part 2 was an easy win from Stripe alone.

I scanned the YC '15 Winter list and I don't think I recognize any of them. Someone could track it better via Crunchbase, but I rather doubt that he bet correctly there either.

EDIT: Oh, GitLab.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#8

Post by iamsb » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 1:53 PM UTC

iamsb wrote: post #4

I dont think he won the first bet did he? Airbnb, Palantir, Dropbox, Uber, Spacex, and Pinterest together are less than 200 bn and falling. All still pretty good companies (not you Uber), doing interesting things though. bet 2 - I have not done the calculation, but just stripe puts it way beyond the 27 bn figgure. bet 3 - plenty of good companies in that batch. Razorpay was valued at half a billion dollars in last ro…

bet 3 - gitlab was in that batch and is alone worth 2.7 bn, so yeah total batch valuation is well north of 3bn.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#9

Post by cm2012 » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 1:53 PM UTC

Ecco wrote: post #2

So... Did he win? I’m especially curious about part 3 :)

I just googled the company values, and it looks like he came up a bit short for number 1 but got close, easily beat number 2 with Stripe alone.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#10

Post by cm2012 » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 1:55 PM UTC

NhanH wrote: post #6

No macro collapse, and the first proposition didn't work out: Uber: 50B, Palantir < 40B, Airbnb < 40B, Dropbox < 10B, Pinterest ~10B, SpaceX < 40B. So total 160-180B market cap. Close, but not quite.

Biggest difference was that the public market valued a bunch of these companies waaay less than VCs did.