A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
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Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#2Imagine a job where you work for 3h out of an autonomous office-furnished RV, have meetings and lunch for 2.5h and then work for 3h in the car again. You could live where land is really cheap! And you wouldn't need to sit in an open office.
Better hope your mileage is good though.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#3Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation.
Current use is limited by cost and convenience.
Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation.
This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want.
The congestion problem is mostly overblown.
First, maybe with rare exceptions like L.A., the traffic is only bad during rush hour, when people are going to work and getting back home. Other times there's plenty.
Second, the way we drive currently is very inefficient. Just last weak I was walking in San Diego along a street at ~5:30 PM i.e. rush hour.
I just eyeballed but ~80% cars were single person.
Not to mention that ~40% cars were gigantic, because it looks that if people can afford gigantic cars, they'll buy them. And in US they can afford it.
Robotaxis would fix those 2 issues.
The cars would no longer be an expression of personality and a status symbol but a utility operated by an organization focused on practicality and cost, like buses and trains.
It's also very easy to use pricing to force people to use the available resources efficiently during congestion.
Let's say a ride is $10 if you drive in a car alone. $5 if you share with another person and $3 if you share it with 2+ people.
If that pricing delta is not enough, increase the price of to $20 (vs $3) or to $50.
Or provide commuting passes tho employers (kind of like Google buses) where a company pays a $100 to robotaxi company per month and the employee gets to use it for free for commute, but only in shared mode.
The future with robotaxis is much brighter than those doomsday prediction of traffic.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#4It has been obvious to me for a long time that AVs will not reduce traffic. Reducing the cost of driving will cause more driving to happen. While AVs will use the road slightly more efficiently, the increase in driving will more than make up for it.
AVs will make traffic a whole lot more tolerable, though. And they will dramatically reduce parking needs, freeing up space for other uses.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#5Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…
Not also to mention something often oversight. An autonomous car can park far away from it's user, meaning we could drastically reduce de number of space taken by parking in the city. First, giving back this spaces to the people as green parks and services places. Second, lower one of the biggest problem in our current city: urban heat island.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#6It has been obvious to me for a long time that AVs will not reduce traffic. Reducing the cost of driving will cause more driving to happen. While AVs will use the road slightly more efficiently, the increase in driving will more than make up for it. AVs will make traffic a whole lot more tolerable, though. And they will dramatically reduce parking needs, freeing up space for other uses.
It's a complete nobrainer. Right now the bulk of the cars are single occupant. That's because it is the occupants going places, not the cars. As soon as self-driving cars are a reality it will be the cars going places that get added to all the other traffic already there.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#7Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…
The problem is those numbers are off.
With margin, the services are always more expensive. I drive a fancyish SUV, and my average per-trip cost is around $3. I can Uber for $8-10 minimum or ride a bus for $1.5.
Robot cars are going to be more like Uber, as you won’t have the driver losing money on depreciation.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#8Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…
Not also to mention something often oversight. An autonomous car can park far away from it's user, meaning we could drastically reduce de number of space taken by parking in the city. First, giving back this spaces to the people as green parks and services places. Second, lower one of the biggest problem in our current city: urban heat island.
But then you’ll likely have a bunch of extra traffic created from the cars going to and from their owner to parking, rather than just to and from their destination. Or from the car just circling the block because the owner would rather not have to wait long for its return.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#9Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…
So much transporting is just to mitigate land use failures. More transportation is solving the wrong problem.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#10Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…
Driverless private cars (which the article is about) and driverless taxis aren’t the same thing. The former does nothing to solve the traffic density or vehicle size problem. Even focusing on driverless taxis, Uber and Lyft have offered for some time options for nicer cars, larger cars, and nicer larger cars, so presumably there’s a market for taxis to still be a status symbol, unlike you state. Finally, your economic incentives have nothing to do with driverless cars; it’s just a tax or toll on non-pooled taxi rides—that could be implemented right now.
And, in the end, even a full car is still less dense than a bus or train.