Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#2This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar.
Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png
Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's not going to offset the demand in the developed world. The growth will slow down and stop in decade or two.
Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#3This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…
The developing nations never pass cheaper oil benefit to the end consumers. They just increase taxes to offset the decrease in price (and thats a good thing). So there won't be any increase in consumption due to low prices.
Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#4Hmm .. maybe don't buy into that SaudiAramco IPO
Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#5This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…
The idea that the developing world will benefit from cheap oil is ridiculous.
The developing world is the one suffering from the impacts of global warming. Several countries in Africa are suffering from wars worsened by climate change driven migrations. Countries like India have a mix of cities running out of water, cities flooded by water and cities drowning in pollution which is almost certainly gonna erase years of people's lives eliminating any improvements caused by better medicine.
Cheap oil, or expensive oil, are both bad for developing countries. It's literally not possible to give the hundreds of millions of people in developing countries a better future with fossil fuel driven growth.
All our thinking and planning has to start from that basic fact.
Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#6This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…
The developing nations never pass cheaper oil benefit to the end consumers. They just increase taxes to offset the decrease in price (and thats a good thing). So there won't be any increase in consumption due to low prices.
This is also exactly correct. The actual reason is that fossil fuels are highly subsidized in most developing countries, so the only impact this has is in reducing the subsidies paid by the government exchequer.
Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#7This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…
> The growth will slow down and stop in decade or two.
I heard exact same statement a decade or two ago.
Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#8I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country with the most oil reserves and the country's desperate need for cash.
Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#9This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…
The idea that the developing world will benefit from cheap oil is ridiculous. The developing world is the one suffering from the impacts of global warming. Several countries in Africa are suffering from wars worsened by climate change driven migrations. Countries like India have a mix of cities running out of water, cities flooded by water and cities drowning in pollution which is almost certainly gonna erase years o…
So cheap oil and expensive are both bad, but "just right" oil is fine?
I'd love for some of these people to go to these countries and tell these people to do without electricity and fuel for their transportation and generators.
Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
#10This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…
The developing nations never pass cheaper oil benefit to the end consumers. They just increase taxes to offset the decrease in price (and thats a good thing). So there won't be any increase in consumption due to low prices.
Ok, so maybe developing nations will get a boost to government revenues. That's a trickier variable to base predictions on, depending on the level of competence or corruption in any given government.