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Neither, and New: Lessons from Uber and Vision Fund

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Re: Neither, and New: Lessons from Uber and Vision Fund

#5

The whole beginning of the article is based on the assumption that Uber's story is played out. I don't think we can call that one yet, IMHO the market hasn't discovered what is Uber WORTH just yet.

When does the market discover what something is worth? I only know of two main lines of thinking:

1) that the market is more or less a random walk, and prices are approximately random. 2) that the market is efficient and the price at all times accurately reflects all available information.

So Uber is either priced accurately (forever) or randomly (forever). I'm not familiar with a third line of thinking that it's random for a period of time and then accurate. Or approximate for a period of time and then accurate.

Re: Neither, and New: Lessons from Uber and Vision Fund

#6
He’s forgetting that Uber’s goal is to be a driverless platform in which case they’d capture significant portions of the drivers margin. Now a software company.

On Vision Fund, he seems to think that there is only one viable VC model. I happen to disagree. Warren Buffet made a lot of money investing in boring companies, and now technology is spilling into ancient markets to transform them. Seems like those companies could be just as big if not sufficiently bigger than the incumbent.

Re: Neither, and New: Lessons from Uber and Vision Fund

#7

He’s forgetting that Uber’s goal is to be a driverless platform in which case they’d capture significant portions of the drivers margin. Now a software company. On Vision Fund, he seems to think that there is only one viable VC model. I happen to disagree. Warren Buffet made a lot of money investing in boring companies, and now technology is spilling into ancient markets to transform them. Seems like those companies…

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Re: Neither, and New: Lessons from Uber and Vision Fund

#9

He’s forgetting that Uber’s goal is to be a driverless platform in which case they’d capture significant portions of the drivers margin. Now a software company. On Vision Fund, he seems to think that there is only one viable VC model. I happen to disagree. Warren Buffet made a lot of money investing in boring companies, and now technology is spilling into ancient markets to transform them. Seems like those companies…

there's no particular reason to believe why Uber should 1. survive the years (more likely decades) until autonomous driving is actually ready and more importantly, why Uber would be in a great position to capitalise on this, given that they don't actually own any cars.

Any large car manufacturer would be perfectly well positioned to partner up with an app startup to deliver autonomous sharing services themselves, given that they already have control over the distribution of the vehicles. Or one might even imagine that blockchain technology eventually lives up to its hype and some distributed solution makes the need for an intermediary unnecessary altogether.

Re: Neither, and New: Lessons from Uber and Vision Fund

#10

He’s forgetting that Uber’s goal is to be a driverless platform in which case they’d capture significant portions of the drivers margin. Now a software company. On Vision Fund, he seems to think that there is only one viable VC model. I happen to disagree. Warren Buffet made a lot of money investing in boring companies, and now technology is spilling into ancient markets to transform them. Seems like those companies…

I don't understand how people think self-driving is Uber's solution. Right now drivers are a variable cost. Is Uber going to buy or lease fleets of self-driving cars (that will depreciate and need to be replaced)? That seems like a CapEx heavy business and it's not clear it's a better one from what they have right now, which is only possible because it's a giant labor law hack at scale.
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