How we will know when a recession is coming?
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How we will know when a recession is coming?
1–10 of 128 posts
Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#2We don't.
Anyone with any real predictive power over that question had a license to print money
Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#3Will the US economy experience a recession in the next...
100 years? Yes!!!!
50 years? Yes!!!
25 years? Yes!!
12.5 years? Yes!
6.25 years? Yes
3.125 years? Yes?
1.5625 years? Maybe
.78125 years? Maybe?
.390625 years? No?
0.1953125 years? No
0.09765625 years? No!
Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#4This is a really interesting metric but I'm going to argue that it doesn't say that much about our current situation given that our current unemployment numbers are highly skewed due to a strong shift towards low quality part time work and a large number of people opting out of the labor search (who are not considered unemployed in these statistics).
I could see an argument made that given that this is statistic is relative to itself and just tracks movement it shouldn't matter if things are different now than in the past but it feels to me like the nature of this metric is so different now than it was in the past that it's just not an apples to apples comparison.
Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#5Interesting and makes sense for someone someone like me who's a dummy for macroeconomics. Unemployed people can't afford to spend too much, thus businesses revenue decreases, they lay off more people and it becomes a negative feedback loop.
I've also seen this VOX documentary about the "yield curve" which also famous for predicting recessions.
Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#6We don't. Anyone with any real predictive power over that question had a license to print money
How?
Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#7Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#8The current odds of a recession are the same as just before the big recession of 2008.
Also, concerningly, the real estate market is just as leveraged and bubbled as then as well.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2019/06/30/current...
Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#9All these indicators are guesses at best, but out of curiosity I checked the current Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers [1]:
Prior 12 months lowest unemployment rate: 3.6% (in April & May 2019).
Prior 3 months average (June/July/August 2019): 3.7%.
So according to this metric we are not in a recession.
Re: How we will know when a recession is coming?
#10On topic, and well outside of my ability to know how seriously to take it: https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2019/09/more-on-low-long-....